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Tropical storm season '16

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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5231 Posts

Initially Posted - 08/23/2016 : 07:41:12

"So it happened again..." as the NPR Car guys say, ... you've wasted another perfectly good year listening to our show". We're coming up to the peak of the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane season once more. We got a little spoiled last year with a strong El Ni�o season. Not so this year and we're beginning to see several areas of tropical weather coming up.

See the attached Atlantic Tropical Map.
At this point (8/23) I see a waning Tropical Depression in the Western Atlantic, a strengthening TD in the east and a curious blob near the Bermuda Triangle (oh-no!).

I'm planning a weeklong project in a few weeks and I'm planning to preventatively remove my sails and other windage, double-tie my dock lines and double-check my bilge pump beforehand.

Obviously I don't see anything imminently threatening vessel Passage right now, but it only takes a few days for everything to change. Think about Sandy, Hugo, Katrina, '38 NE storm - the week before all of these, nobody knew anything about what was to come. We're still talking about them today.

The NOAA NWS warns us to be prepared and vigilant at this time of year. What are you planning for the season?

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9013 Posts

Response Posted - 08/23/2016 : 14:50:02

I get e-mail warnings from BoatUS with links to the National Hurricane Center whenever a named storm has formed in the N. Atlantic--then as many as two per day while it's active. I need to be aware in advance, being president of my condo association with a dock (my boat is on it) and various other preparations that can be necessary for the buildings and other things.

Click on any of the storms you see here for details and forecasts.

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5231 Posts

Response Posted - 08/23/2016 : 16:34:10

Dave - the data is from the same source - NOAA's Coral Gables National Hurricane Center facility. In my case its overlaid with a satellite photo. In your case, a computer-generated graphic.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

islander
Master Marine Consultant

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3992 Posts

Response Posted - 08/23/2016 : 17:00:31

Well now you guys put the whammy on it. I fully expect that every depression coming off Africa to develop into a cat5 and and make a bee line straight at us now.

Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound

Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/23/2016 : 19:29:00

Could it be, hmmmm, Gaston?

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts

Response Posted - 08/23/2016 : 21:30:35

In my situation, I can't rely on my interpretation of this stuff. The NHC looks at at least 10 independent computer models from the US and Europe, along with their own data including that from the USAF aircraft flying into the storms. They apply their own statistical forecasting error factors based on years of comparing forecasts to hard data, and come up with the forecast "cones" we get on their site. They were dead right with Sandy--her landfall, breadth of danger (as far as Ohio), and powerful seas that decimated parts of RI close to me--even though she wasn't even a tropical storm when her center hit the NJ shore (and people called her Hurricane Sandy).

I only mention Sandy's lack of "rank" because (1) the wind damage from a true hurricane will be much greater, and (2) sub-tropical storms can generate seas and surges that are as dangerous as hurricanes--as Sandy proved beyond question. The NHC saw that coming and warned us.

With 23 other homeowners relying on me and my board for protection of their homes and shares of this complex, I look to the NHC (the site I indicated above) for interpretations of what's going on out there.

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/23/2016 21:36:35

Voyager
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5231 Posts

Response Posted - 08/24/2016 : 04:35:38

Here's a more in depth product from the Hurricane center. It shows wind fields around low pressure centers.
Check this Link.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

islander
Master Marine Consultant

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3992 Posts

Response Posted - 08/24/2016 : 06:33:29

Invest 99-L's has potential to impact Florida/South East coast.

Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound

Voyager
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5231 Posts

Response Posted - 08/28/2016 : 16:12:20

So today Gaston has intensified to a Cat 2 but the good news is it's going away. I pity the folks in the Azores. TD 8 looks to be lurking off the NC outer banks but then it'll hook on Tuesday afternoon when the front passes offshore. TD 9 could create some mischief in the Gulf but the strongest winds are way back in the Bahamas.
So far so good...

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/31/2016 : 05:52:54

It's looking like TD 8 is affecting vacationers and residents in the Outer Banks with inclement weather but the one to watch is TD 9 in the Gulf of Mexico. Here's a five-day projection of its predicted course and it covers or at least threatens much of FL, the Carolinas and VA this weekend, heading away from land as it travels north but clipping Cape Cod and the Islands on Sunday night and Labor Day.
Of course there are several variables:
1. It may never get enough juice and stay a TD or once over land, a disorganized area of wet weather.
2. Long range (4-5 days) predictions are iffy at best.
Because it's expected to be over land for much of the time, its chances are slim until it gets offshore again. If it hits the Gulf Stream it may pose a threat. This is one to keep an eye on.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts

Response Posted - 08/31/2016 : 07:08:04

Here's today's forecast for TD-9. If it stays on NHC's most-likely track, it passes MA about 200 miles out as a post-tropical depression (sustained winds under 39 mph). The NW edge of the margin of error reaches my area, RI, and MA. The worst news could be the 6-10" of rain forecast for the Carolina coast.

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge

islander
Master Marine Consultant

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3992 Posts

Response Posted - 08/31/2016 : 13:11:54

Models now show it curving west, If it does Sun. or Mon. Will be a wash out here in NY/Conn.

Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound

Davy J
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1511 Posts

Response Posted - 08/31/2016 : 14:48:59

It's been raining here steady for almost 24 hours. We are well east of the storm. There's not much wind, but at times, the rain is very heavy. High tide was about 1.5-2' above normal. Manatee and Pasco counties will have flooding issues. Good luck for your weekend plans in the northeast..........

Davy J

2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay

Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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5851 Posts

Response Posted - 09/01/2016 : 08:25:22

There's a big 3-day Labor Day regatta in Annapolis this weekend. Based on current forecasts, racing on Saturday is highly doubtful (15 gusting to 24, and building during the day), and on Sunday is unthinkable (23 gusting to 47). We can probably get in 2-3 spirited races on Monday.

Steve Milby J/24 "Captiva Wind"
previously C&C 35, Cal 25, C25 TR/FK, C22
Past Commodore

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9013 Posts

Response Posted - 09/01/2016 : 10:03:13

The latest at 11:00 this morning shows her stalling east of you Sun-Mon. N winds would seem to be on order for the Chesapeake, and not easing overnight. "Spirited" could be the word... "Brutal" is also a possibility.

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/01/2016 10:06:31

Steve Milby
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Response Posted - 09/01/2016 : 11:02:54

quote:
Originally posted by Stinkpotter

The latest at 11:00 this morning shows her stalling east of you Sun-Mon. N winds would seem to be on order for the Chesapeake, and not easing overnight. "Spirited" could be the word... "Brutal" is also a possibility.

One current prediction for Monday is sunny, 83 degrees, wind 12 mph gusting to 17. That would be spirited but do-able.

Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. At least the party and dinner and Dark 'n Stormys and door prizes won't be cancelled!

Steve Milby J/24 "Captiva Wind"
previously C&C 35, Cal 25, C25 TR/FK, C22
Past Commodore

OJ
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4382 Posts

Response Posted - 09/01/2016 : 13:22:07

Just watched CNN reporter in Apalachicola, FL standing in front of a sailboat . . . foresail on furler being buffeted, mainsail with cover on boom and bimini which looked to be deployed, flapping.

Owner is looking to make an insurance claim?

1989 C25 TR/WK, #5822
1973 McVay Minuet 19
1975 Jester 12
1981 C25 SR/SK, #2428
1981 C22 SR/SK,
Tanzer 16
Sunfish

"There is nothing, absolutely nothing half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats." Kenneth Grahame

Voyager
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5231 Posts

Response Posted - 09/01/2016 : 16:45:15

So now the NOAA NWS is predicting Hermine (formerly TD9) to cross the big bend of FL and move up through GA, SC, NC and VA as a tropical storm. Then she heads offshore of DelMarVa and stalls
There, she taps into 81� waters in the Atlantic and possibly 86� water in the Gulf Stream. As we've been taught by Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel all these years, water temps of 80� or above lead to the generation of tropical weather.
Between her stalling out and feeding on warm waters for at least Sunday, Monday and Tuesday we in the NJ, NY, LI, CT zone are in for a severe whomping!
I'll be sailing on Friday and Saturday and I'll be heading to the boat on Sunday morning to remove the Genoa and Main and remove anything that could produce any windage. I'll bring out my 1/2" docklines and chafing gear to protect Passage. Let's hope this is all we get but I'm not convinced...
Let's see what the next several weeks bring.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

jduck00
Captain

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313 Posts

Response Posted - 09/02/2016 : 04:34:48

quote:
Originally posted by Davy J

...Manatee and Pasco counties will have flooding issues. Good luck for your weekend plans in the northeast..........

Yep. Had a foot of water in the house last night. Not a fun night at all. The tidal surge was a lot stronger than I expected. Need to go check on the boat, but its way down the list right now.

Jeremy Duck
The Lucky Duck
1980 SKSR Hull # 1850

islander
Master Marine Consultant

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3992 Posts

Response Posted - 09/02/2016 : 06:15:53

Wow, I was actually thinking of you yesterday thinking that Hudson was going to get hit hard. Sorry to hear this.

Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound

Davy J
Master Marine Consultant

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1511 Posts

Response Posted - 09/02/2016 : 06:33:57

quote:
The tidal surge was a lot stronger than I expected.

Just think, this was barely a Cat 1 hurricane that made landfall hundreds of miles to the north. If we get a direct hit in the bay area, with these kinds of higher than normal tides, everything will be under water.

Davy J

2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5231 Posts

Response Posted - 09/02/2016 : 07:07:55

Florida is in the bullseye right now, with a new moon last night tides are running a little higher than normal anyway. Next each state and community coming up the Atlantic coast will have their turn... No. FL, coastal GA, SC, NC. Hard to predict but while she's over land there'll be more rain than wind. That's worrisome enough especially for those in low-lying areas.
The storm will then move out over the warm Atlantic, possibly over the Gulf Stream, and likely get recharged. At the same time it's forward motion will slow and several models have her meandering off the coasts of Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey. Depending on the diameter of the storm, rain and winds will extend out all across the Northeastern coastal states.
One scenario a local CT weather reporter painted was that strong easterly winds would begin to pile water on the NJ coast, the Long Island coast and into Long Island Sound. With only Hell's Gate under the Triboro Bridge near LaGuardia Airport as a drain, the Sound will fill up fast.
Sandy gave us a 12+ foot storm surge at high tide. Wonder what's in store for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday as she churns off shore?

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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Response Posted - 09/02/2016 : 07:18:11

I prepped the C&C this morning, stripping unnecessary canvas, doubling the lines, adding more fenders, and wrapping halyards around the roller furler. I'll prep the Cal this afternoon. All that might not be necessary, with the storm passing to the east of the Bay, but it's ready for the worst. Unless it gets worse than expected, I intend to stay aboard during the storm.

Steve Milby J/24 "Captiva Wind"
previously C&C 35, Cal 25, C25 TR/FK, C22
Past Commodore

Voyager
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5231 Posts

Response Posted - 09/02/2016 : 21:16:18

quote:
Originally posted by Steve Milby

I All that might not be necessary, with the storm passing to the east of the Bay, but it's ready for the worst. Unless it gets worse than expected, I intend to stay aboard during the storm.

I'm puzzled by this notion. With tropical weather that gets out of control and life-threatening, by the time you realize you're in trouble it's often too late to escape. Death and destruction are all around and just by leaving the house, the car or the boat, you're still quite literally up shiatsu's creek.

Sadly, things like this often happen during natural disasters.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts

Response Posted - 09/03/2016 : 07:08:39

Now they think the center will be about 200 miles east of Annapolis--then she slows to a crawl toward Nantucket, reaching hurricane force briefly about off NJ. Steve appears to be safe.

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts

Response Posted - 09/03/2016 : 07:15:45

Sunday on eastern Long Island Sound: Seas building to 8' in the evening... Think I'll stay in.

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge

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