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pastmember
Master Marine Consultant

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2402 Posts

Initially Posted - 03/25/2009 : 13:27:03

I watched a show on the geology of the Great Lakes area last night. It was a rehash of well known conclusions. (How often do you actually learn anything from science shows?) The show spoke of continental rebound and used it to explain the lowering of the lake levels as opposed to global warming. (Now that the weight of the glaciers is gone the crust returns to its non deformed shape.) It certainly made it sound like the lake levels are inexorably going down regardless of yearly weather situations. How many different ideas are floated by the locals to explain the drop?

Frank Hopper

Edited by - on

delliottg
Former Mainsheet C250 Tech Editor

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USA
4479 Posts

Response Posted - 03/25/2009 : 13:46:08

Continental rebound is something that surveyors have to take into consideration when running long distance levels or traverses. The GPS post-processing software lets you take it into consideration as well (surveying GPS, not your regular handhelds like we all use).

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dlucier
Master Marine Consultant

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Virgin Islands (United Kingdom)
7583 Posts

Response Posted - 03/25/2009 : 14:09:04

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by pastmember
 It certainly made it sound like the lake levels are inexorably going down regardless of yearly weather situations.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">

No, lake levels are primarly about the yearly weather situations which explains why lake levels are up on all of the Great Lakes right now. I believe Lake Huron is up almost foot over a year ago.

Edited by - dlucier on 03/25/2009 14:09:26

Renzo
Admiral

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USA
621 Posts

Response Posted - 03/25/2009 : 14:30:41

One of the most frequent local theories is that the lake level is controlled by the Army Corps of Engineers by diverting water from the great lakes maintain the depth of the Mississippi river shipping channels.
Another prevalent theory is that water is secretly being diverted to provide water to Nevada and Arizona.

It will be interesting to see what level will be maintained this year considering the large amount of precipitation that we had and the long spate of below freezing temperature that maintained an ice cap on many of he lakes reducing evaporation.

When my daughter was small her theory to explain why the lakes level went up in summer and down in the fall was an adaptation of Archimedes principal - "When all the boats go in the water it goes up when they come out the water goes down. Just like when you get in and out of the bath tub."

Edited by - Renzo on 03/25/2009 15:02:15

Dave5041
Former Mainsheet Editor

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USA
3758 Posts

Response Posted - 03/25/2009 : 14:39:56

Did the program address the prehistoric size of the Great Lakes? There have been incredible increases and decreases over the long term (geological time frame). Most of what we see is weather variation in annual precipitation, especially on the upper lakes. Global warming is the popular explanation , we love fads, for far to many things. The "Skeptic" had a great issue on both sides of GW last year. One of the most striking issues is that the atmospheric prediction models have an uncertainty (above or below the predicted value) ten times greater than the temperature they predict. A predicted temperature change of +1.9º over the next century could be + or - 20º according to the models. The variability is in the predictive mechanics of the models and input data. We don't understand the system well enough or have enough data to do better. Most of the same models are used in weather forcasts, and consider how reliable they are on only a 10 day projection

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DaveR
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USA
2015 Posts

Response Posted - 03/25/2009 : 15:10:44

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"> "When all the boats go in the water it goes up when they come out the water goes down. Just like when you get in and out of the bath tub." <hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">

Hahahahaha

I think she may have something there Renzo.

Edited by - on

glen
Captain

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359 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 08:34:02

Hay Renzo, I think Karen will have to agree that my boat does more for the lake levels then yours

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Chris Z
Captain

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452 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 09:12:09

Interesting conversation. On Lake Erie, they state that the errosion at Niagra Falls will eventually lead to Erie being dry. This process has been slowed down with the deverting of water to produce electricity.

This was explained when I visited the the falls once. Also I have done some reading on this subject.

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Dave Bristle
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Djibouti
10005 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 09:33:52

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Renzo
 ...Another prevalent theory is that water is secretly being diverted to provide water to Nevada and Arizona...<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">How?? ...via SWA flights?? ("Sorry folks, but we're gonna hafta ask half of you to get off the plane.")

Edited by - Dave Bristle on 03/26/2009 09:35:38

delliottg
Former Mainsheet C250 Tech Editor

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4479 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 10:12:38

They use the black helos to fly it down...

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Renzo
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621 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 10:51:05

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Dave Bristle
 <blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Renzo
 ...Another prevalent theory is that water is secretly being diverted to provide water to Nevada and Arizona...<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">How?? ...via SWA flights?? ("Sorry folks, but we're gonna hafta ask half of you to get off the plane.")
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">

I don't necessarily subscribe to the diverted water theory but here is an exerpt from the January 13th issue of the Chicago Reader that deals with some possible methods of transporting the water:

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">In Arizona, according to an e-mail sent to me by independent research scientist Alan Christopher, "groundwater reserves are draining at a steadily increasing rate that mirrors the rate of population growth. Even though the groundwater reserves in some areas are enormous, continual pumping eventually drains them. This has already happened at higher elevations in Arizona, where towns are now trucking in water because their wells have run dry."

Christopher adds ominously, "We in the West discuss 'solving' our water problems by building a pipeline from the Great Lakes to Arizona and paying for the water to be diverted here. This, of course, is more of a pipe dream since the Great Lakes Basin has laws preventing this from happening."

Well, we're doing our best to write them. In 1998 a Canadian company was given permission by the government of Ontario to ship 158 million gallons of water a year from Lake Superior to Asia in tankers. Thirty U.S. congressmen signed a resolution protesting the sale, and an opposition leader in Ontario thundered, "It's open season on our clean water." The province backed down, and the Council of Great Lakes Governors promptly spent $250,000 on lawyers, who concluded that the existing laws offered little protection against predators. 
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">

So,I guess it's not as far fetched as it sounds and may be more of a threat to the water level in the Great Lakes than climate change theories.

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Prospector
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Canada
3159 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 11:08:15

On this side of th eborder we are keepin ga wary eye on what is going on with water in the USA. You guys have a bigger population to care for, and we fear what that may mean to our water in the future since much of our watershed is into the Great Lakes.

Diverting that water down the Mississippi means it leaves this watershed, to show up in a completely different circulation patern.

http://www.canadians.org/water/issues/right/Canada.html

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Renzo
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USA
621 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 11:36:43

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Prospector
 On this side of th eborder we are keepin ga wary eye on what is going on with water in the USA. You guys have a bigger population to care for, and we fear what that may mean to our water in the future since much of our watershed is into the Great Lakes.

Diverting that water down the Mississippi means it leaves this watershed, to show up in a completely different circulation patern.

http://www.canadians.org/water/issues/right/Canada.html

<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">

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Dave5041
Former Mainsheet Editor

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USA
3758 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 13:25:51

The finally ratified Great Lakes Compact of bordering states and provinces specifically prevents diversion of greatlakes water. The Great Lakes water, management, and protection is governed by the board of bordering states and and provinces, not the fderal government. The water rights issue was a factor in ratification in that waterfront residents wanted their private use protected while still preventing commercial diversion. To think that the Corps of Engineers could control that much water through the Chicago canal and river is absurd, the lakes contain 22% of the planet's surface freshwater, "enough to cover the contiguous 48 states to a depth of 9.5 feet". As for Niagra, the eventual collpse of the Niagra escarpment may or may not be the demise or reduction of Erie, but not in the next 10,000 years. All in all, I think the lakes will last a little longer than our boats.

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Nautiduck
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USA
3704 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 14:57:03

Every now and then those Californians bring up the idea of diverting Columbia River water to Southern California. Even floated an idea of filling gigantic rubber inflatable bags (like giant water-beds) full of the water and towing them down by sea. All ideas have been nixed.

One of our nation's big mistakes was to build big cities in places with little or no water.

Edited by - Nautiduck on 03/26/2009 14:59:12

Dave5041
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Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 17:10:43

After the massive floods and destruction in Oregon & washington a few years ago, the top meteorologist in Oregon state government said on national TV: "This is nature's way of telling us not to build in marginal areas." Mountainsides collapse and barrier islands come and go, and we still haven't learned.

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glivs
Admiral

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USA
836 Posts

Response Posted - 03/26/2009 : 19:38:04

Freshwater war scenarios have held the CIA's interest for at least 20 years for their potential to regionally destabilize economies and governments. I wonder if they ever considered a failed U.S. housing market?

As to draining the Great Lakes - the safety protocols and facilities in place along the 7 major locks on the St. Lawrence Seaway (5 Canadian, 2 U.S.) to regulate discharge (and avoid draining the lakes)is far more complex and dependent on greater collaboration than one might imagine. A tour of any of the locks or power facilities throughout the GL system is probably a worthwhile experience. This summer marks the Seaway's 50th year of service.

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