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jerlim
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1484 Posts
Initially Posted - 03/11/2010 :  13:39:40  Show Profile
AccuWeather's 2010 hurricane forecast

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25984/joe-bastardi-more-active-2010-1.asp

Let's hope he's wrong...
Jerry
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OJ
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4382 Posts
Response Posted - 03/11/2010 :  19:03:48  Show Profile
Seems to me they predicted a high number of hurricanes the year after Katrina - and it was moderate at worst.

Here in the northeast meteorologists seem to talk each fall about the fuzzy caterpillars as a prediction for a severe winter. Then by the following spring after and unremarkable snow fall - everyone has long forgotten about the dumb caterpillar theory.
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Dave5041
Former Mainsheet Editor

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USA
3758 Posts
Response Posted - 03/11/2010 :  19:06:44  Show Profile
Even Colorado State kind of concedes to NOAA that early season forecasts are really hindcasts and of very little value, although they claim to have revised how they weight the historical data. Look at last year's predictions for perspective and remember that media hyping weather is big business. I'll wait and see.
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DaveR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
2015 Posts
Response Posted - 03/12/2010 :  06:59:22  Show Profile  Visit DaveR's Homepage
They've missed pretty badly for the last couple years and IMO are generally not to accurate. I put very little weight in them.
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Dave Bristle
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
10005 Posts
Response Posted - 03/12/2010 :  09:38:17  Show Profile
The key factor is "The rapidly weakening El Niño." El Niño has been creating high-level winds across the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and beyond, that have interfered with the development of cyclones. If El Niño dissipates, things could get active.

Best to be ready for the worst, and then be pleasantly surprised!
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5368 Posts
Response Posted - 03/12/2010 :  15:01:59  Show Profile
While hurricanes are occasionally fierce in New England, we suffer frequently from exceedingly strong nor'easters.

According to the National Weather Service (NOAA), tomorrow, Saturday, we are expecting 8-12 foot waves breaking along the south shore of Long Island, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

At the time of high tide, they are expecting high tidal departures of 3 to 3.5 feet.

If this kind of weather were to hit us during regular boating season there would be lots of boaters scrambling for cover.
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Notice: The advice given on this site is based upon individual or quoted experience, yours may differ.
The Officers, Staff and members of this site only provide information based upon the concept that anyone utilizing this information does so at their own risk and holds harmless all contributors to this site.