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GaryB
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4312 Posts

Initially Posted - 07/27/2011 : 14:30:52

000
WTNT44 KNHC 272055
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...
AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL
STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF
A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/
GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER
TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Association Member

GaryB
Andiamo
'89 SR/WK #5862
Kemah,TX

Edited by - on

John Russell
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3444 Posts

Response Posted - 07/27/2011 : 14:46:14

Hopefully it will be just strong enough to provide the much needed rainfall in south Texas. Here's to keeping a good thought.

Edited by - on

britinusa
Web Editor

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USA
5404 Posts

Response Posted - 07/27/2011 : 16:01:27

[url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205313.shtml?basin#contents"]noaa.gov[/url]
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones.

Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
[/quote]

Edited by - britinusa on 07/27/2011 16:05:56

delliottg
Former Mainsheet C250 Tech Editor

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USA
4479 Posts

Response Posted - 07/27/2011 : 16:12:32

Is this the link you meant (your link is broken)?: [url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marinersguide.pdf"]Mariner's Guide For Hurricane Awareness[/url]

Edited by - delliottg on 07/27/2011 16:12:57

Joe Diver
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1218 Posts

Response Posted - 07/27/2011 : 16:29:51

C'mon Don! Here's an open invitation to visit North Texas!

Edited by - on

GaryB
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4312 Posts

Response Posted - 07/27/2011 : 17:28:10

At this time they are saying at most a Cat 1 at land fall. Maybe 70 mph.Corpus Christi seems to be ground zero at the moment but I'm betting it's going to hook to the right and be closer to the Houston/Galveston area. Storm surge at the moment is not forecast to be much.

Other than adding some extra lines and removing the headsail and boom/mainsail I'm not taking any extra precautions. I'm in a very protected area of the marina.

Of course all of the above is subject to change at any moment and only time will tell.

Edited by - on

britinusa
Web Editor

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USA
5404 Posts

Response Posted - 07/27/2011 : 18:22:15

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by delliottg
 Is this the link you meant (your link is broken)?: [url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marinersguide.pdf"]Mariner's Guide For Hurricane Awareness[/url]
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
When they update the page, the old one seems to be dropped.

Paul

Edited by - on

GaryB
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4312 Posts

Response Posted - 07/28/2011 : 19:09:42

Looks like we're going to be spared this time. Maybe get just some rain.

Edited by - on

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