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 Miami: Good Night, Irene?		  New Topic  Topic Locked
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  16:03:32  Show Profile
If the forecast path keeps shifting east, the Chesapeake might just get some strong NE winds shifting to NW, which should shove water <i>out</i> of the bay as the low pressure tries to suck it in.
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Tom Potter
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1913 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  16:43:44  Show Profile
The current track has the eye coming over my house. oh what joy!!! I'm thinking it will bend a little more north in the next few days and pass off shore a little. Still going to get a heck of a blow!
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5376 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  19:03:28  Show Profile
Looks like every path except one puts it in CT on Sunday night. I'll be back in CT on Saturday morning, and I need to pull my jib and main. I'm on a floating dock about 1/2 mile from Long Island Sound.
Coords: 041 13.0 073 3.3.

I wonder whether I should move her up into the Housatonic River? It's still a tidal river there, but it's about 10 miles inland. See coords: 041 17.0 073 4.9

I would still expect a 10ft storm surge at that point, but with the river's high banks (&gt; 50 ft) it's pretty well protected to east and west. A southerly wind would put a major crimp in my plans. How should I anchor?

Bow and stern vs. double up on the bow? I've got three anchors.
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5376 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  19:21:52  Show Profile
If I stay on the floating dock in Milford Harbor, I have to work out my position relative to my dock mate. He's got a 25ft MacGregor so I'm thinking he ought to be stern in, and I will be bow in. I'd hate to have the rigging smash together in the storm.
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GaryB
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USA
4304 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  21:01:48  Show Profile
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by Voyager</i>
<br />Looks like every path except one puts it in CT on Sunday night. I'll be back in CT on Saturday morning, and I need to pull my jib and main. I'm on a floating dock about 1/2 mile from Long Island Sound.
Coords: 041 13.0 073 3.3.

I wonder whether I should move her up into the Housatonic River? It's still a tidal river there, but it's about 10 miles inland. See coords: 041 17.0 073 4.9

I would still expect a 10ft storm surge at that point, but with the river's high banks (&gt; 50 ft) it's pretty well protected to east and west. A southerly wind would put a major crimp in my plans. How should I anchor?

Bow and stern vs. double up on the bow? I've got three anchors.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></font id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
If the storm surge in the main harbor is 10' it could easily be much higher in the river trapped between the banks.

Not knowing your sailing area it's hard to say what to do. If the marina is at least partially protected and the docks are in good condition I might think about staying at the dock and letting the boat ride the dock up and over the surge. If the marina is exposed I'd be pulling the boat and getting the heck out of Dodge.

During Ike we had a surge of approx. 12'. I had been on a fixed pier behind an 8' breakwater but moved to a marina that is a known hurricane hole. I had a 12' x 35' slip on a floating dock. Ike went directly over the marina and the only problem I had was one lower shroud came loose.

The fixed pier I had been on before was wadded up like kindling and almost every boat in that part of the marina was destroyed or heavily damaged. Water was 4' over the breakwater and the waves were rolling in from Galveston Bay.

Let's pray that Irene curves more to the right and away from everyone!
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redeye
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3476 Posts
Response Posted - 08/24/2011 :  05:55:56  Show Profile
&lt;&lt; HIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATER
TODAY. &gt;&gt;

NHC discussion from 5am this morning (Wednesday )

&lt;&lt; THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE &gt;&gt;

not good..
Edited by - redeye on 08/24/2011 05:58:04
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5376 Posts
Response Posted - 08/24/2011 :  22:37:59  Show Profile
The cold front is expected to stall to the north of the CT coast, and thus allow the storm to make landfall in CT. We're pretty well protected in the harbor, but if the surge tops the breakwaters, I'm in deep due. The top of the rocks are 10 feet above the high tide line. Storm will be at its worst here between 3pm and midnight, with high tide at 10AM. Good deal!
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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/25/2011 :  08:59:21  Show Profile
Yup--the projection has been moved west from here--Mystic might no longer be in the cross-hairs, although the east side of a hurricane is worse than the west (and possibly the center). We'll probably see at least tropical storm force conditions in any case. Now I have to worry about my GF in Darien, CT, and my kids in Brooklyn.
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Notice: The advice given on this site is based upon individual or quoted experience, yours may differ.
The Officers, Staff and members of this site only provide information based upon the concept that anyone utilizing this information does so at their own risk and holds harmless all contributors to this site.