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Batten Down the Hatches!

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dlucier
Master Marine Consultant

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Virgin Islands (United Kingdom)
7583 Posts

Initially Posted - 05/22/2007 : 13:33:56

From MSNBC...

Forecasters expect busy 2007 hurricane season 

WASHINGTON - Government forecasters called for a busier than normal hurricane season Tuesday.

National Weather Service forecasters said they expect 13 to 17 tropical storms, with seven to 10 of them becoming hurricanes.

The forecast follows that of two other leading storm experts in anticipating a busy season.

The likelihood of above normal hurricane activity is 75 percent, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

“With expectations for an active season, it is critically important that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the Caribbean be prepared,” said Bill Proenza director of the national hurricane center in Miami.

After the battering by storms Katrina and Rita in 2005 there were widespread fears last summer of another powerful storm striking, but the unexpected development of the El Niño climate phenomenon helped dampen conditions.

More storms along coast possible
El Niño has ended, however, leaving the potential for more tropical storms threatening the Gulf and East coasts.

El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that occurs every few years. The warm water affects wind patterns that guide weather movement and its effects can be seen worldwide. In El Niño years, there tend to be fewer summer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.

Earlier this month Philip Klotzbach, a research associate at Colorado State University, and Joe Bastardi, the chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather Inc., said they anticipate a more active storm cycle this year.

And, almost as if to underscore their comments, a subtropical storm formed off the southeast coast and became Andrea, the first named storm of the year, well before the June 1 official beginning of hurricane season.

Outrunning the alphabet
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30, but the strange season of 2005 ran over into late December, as well as using up all the planned alphabetical names, forcing storm watchers to switch to the Greek alphabet to continue naming storms.

Last year, there were just 10 named storms in the Atlantic and none made landfall in the United States.

Klotzbach and his colleague at Colorado State, William Gray, predict a “very active” season this year with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes.

Bastardi called for fewer storms but agreed 2007 would be more active than usual. He expects 13 or 14 named storms, six or seven of which will strike the U.S. coast.

Bastardi said the Texas Gulf coast is twice as likely to be hit as in an average year and Florida appears four times as likely.

Katrina's aftermath
Katrina easily became the costliest hurricane in U.S. history with damage estimated by the National Hurricane Center at more than $80 billion. Indeed, of the 30 costliest hurricanes in this country’s history, four occurred in 2005.

Katrina displaced 1992’s Andrew, at just over $48 billion, as the top storm, while other 2005 storms ranked are Wilma, No. 3, at $21 billion; Rita in 9th place with damage of nearly $12 billion and, ranked 30th, Dennis at $2 billion.

And with a death toll topping 1,500 Katrina is also the third deadliest in U.S. history, following the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston killing 8,000 to 12,000 people and a 1928 storm that claimed at least 2,500 lives in Florida.

Don Lucier

North Star SR/FK

Edited by - on

saribella
Captain

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USA
286 Posts

Response Posted - 05/22/2007 : 21:14:05

Wasn't this the prediction for last year as well?

Edited by - on

stampeder
Master Marine Consultant

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1608 Posts

Response Posted - 05/22/2007 : 22:08:05

We've had record snow pack in the mountains, anticipating high water levels from the resultant run-off. We had snow fall this weekend (may 20).
I keep hearing about changing weather patterns - but I still only get three months of summer.

Edited by - on

britinusa
Web Editor

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USA
5404 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 07:52:18

thanks for posting Don, we're already into our hurricane prep plan.

Included this year are tiedowns points for the boat and trailer.
I'll be digging 4' deep holes about 1' dia, then embed some 1/2" rebar loops into concreate just below grass level. Then 4 new straps to secure the trailer and boat to the tiedown points.

My next challange would be figuring out how to get the mast down as I figure it would be safer on the ground (under the boat) than in it's usual trailering position.

We have our NoAA weather alert radio setup for local area, and are already accumulating bottled water (48 are in the freezer for the B.E.E.R. cruise)

I'm thinking of running extra screws into the fence panels too! Would hate to see that fence blow apart, it took a lot of work to rebuild after Wilma.

I was a sea scout kid in the UK, same motto... be prepared and 'Better late than dead on time!'

Paul

Edited by - on

DaveR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
2015 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 08:16:17

Down here in Daytona Beach we have the Bahamas protecting our South east, the Gulf Stream 50 miles off shore with all that warm water going north to entice the storm to follow (hurricanes really do sniff out warmer water and follow it) and Cape Canaveral to steer them northeast if they come up the coast.
This defense has worked for more than 50 years. The only time we get storms is when they come across Florida from the west coast, as in 2004 and then in the early 60's with Hurricane Donna.
I maintain that we are the safest area on the East coast of America South of New York and I'm hoping God doesn't make a liar out of me any time soon:)
I'm also praying the forecasters are wrong again but in case they aren't my brother has a place on a very nicely protected canal about 30 miles south of me where I can hold up (no trailer).
Wish us luck!

Edited by - on

Nautiduck
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3704 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 09:27:42

Dave, your mention of Hurricane Donna brought back memories. I was in elementary school in New Jersey and remember being sent home early due to Donna. It was still a big storm when it swept through the Northeast.

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dlucier
Master Marine Consultant

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Virgin Islands (United Kingdom)
7583 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 09:39:11

The only hurricane I've experienced was when I lived in Jersey in 1985 and Gloria (which coincidently is also my mother's name) came through.

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Dave Bristle
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
10005 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 10:16:36

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by dlucier
 The only hurricane I've experienced was when I lived in Jersey in 1985 and Gloria (which coincidently is also my mother's name) came through.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
Sorry, Don... I'm pretty sure Gloria was a tropical storm by the time it got up here (NJ-NY-CT). Still big and nasty, but not a hurricane, and far from an Andrew or Katrina.

Dave--do you have a death wish??

You youngsters have to learn not to say things like that!

Edited by - Dave Bristle on 05/23/2007 10:19:01

dlucier
Master Marine Consultant

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Virgin Islands (United Kingdom)
7583 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 10:24:11

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Dave Bristle
 Sorry, Don... I'm pretty sure Gloria was a tropical storm by the time it got up here (NJ-NY-CT). Still big and nasty, but not a hurricane,...<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">

[url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria"]Hurricane Gloria[/url]

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KenDavis
1st Mate

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USA
69 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 11:27:36

Anabelle is in a wet slip off the Escambia River in as protected area as I can imagine.
But...
a satelite view from Google Maps shows about nine boat hulls blown up into the surrounding swamp from hurricane Ivan (2004)

keeping my fingers crossed and saving for a trailer.

Edited by - on

jerlim
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1484 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 20:01:39

Gloria was a Catagory 1 hurricane when it hit Long Island.
Been there - done that.

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Dave Bristle
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
10005 Posts

Response Posted - 05/23/2007 : 22:06:15

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by jerlim
 Gloria was a Catagory 1 hurricane when it hit Long Island.
Been there - done that.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
Well, she was less than expected around Bridgeport--I was there. Winds were in the 60-70 range (barely). The one in 1938, with 120 mph winds and a much bigger surge, was much more destructive, although I wasn't there. It went pretty much from the open ocean straight into CT without tracking up the coast--not a good thing. It also wasn't good that storms weren't being tracked then.

My point is that if people around NJ/NY/CT think they saw a major hurricane in Gloria, they're mistaken--it can get much worse.

Edited by - Dave Bristle on 05/23/2007 22:15:54

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