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Earl - another Long Island Express?

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Voyager
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Initially Posted - 08/28/2010 : 16:05:41

Around these parts, if you ask any old-timers about hurricanes, they'll say "yeah, we've had a few storms over the years, but there was nothing like the 'Long Island Express'" a.k.a the 1938 hurricane that hit Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. It killed hundreds back when there were few waterside homes, ruined homes and businesses and even changed the landscape in places.

At that time, weather forecasting was akin to crystal ball gazing. No radar, no satellite weather stats were distributed by telegraph. When weather tracked across the country, local meteorologists could see what was happening west of here the day before, and use local knowledge and an educated guess and come up with a forecast.

Not so with this hurricane. In large part, it ran across open water for thousands of miles. Some weather stations along coastal NC had seen some outer rain bands and swells and Atlantic shipping reported winds exceeding 100 mph. New England forecasters did not put 2 and 2 together, and had no idea what was on the way.

When it finally made landfall in Long Island, all hell broke loose. Passing just across Long Island and Block Island Sounds, it took its toll on CT's and RI's coastlines. It not only caused destruction of waterfront homes and communities, but also flooded inland cities like Providence, Norwich, Hartford and Worcester.

If you look at Napatree Point just off Watch Hill RI, you'll see a chunk of sand that used to be a part of RI. Now its a sandbar out in the middle of the bay. This was caused by the 'cane of 38.

Today I was watching the Weather Channel, and the path of Earl looks eerily reminiscent of the '38 storm. Passing just north of the Leeward Islands, then coming up between NC's outer banks and Bermuda, this one looks like it is making a bullseye right on NYC and points east.

While hurricane prediction is iffy at best, it is expected to arrive some time on Friday. A cold front is expected to nudge it further east, but that could simply push it out toward Cape Code and the Islands.

Stay tuned...

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Edited by - on

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9082 Posts

Response Posted - 08/28/2010 : 16:32:24

I've been watching Earl, too... He's predicted to go above 115 as he passes by the SE US coast. The current "cone" could have her plowing into the Carolinas or into Long Island, CT, RI, MA, etc. If she gets pushed a little further east, the good news is the "back side" (left) of a hurricane is less destructive.

The Long Island Express included a storm surge in my area that was estimated at around 16', which would try pretty hard to lift our docks off the pilings (and flood several of our condo units' first floors and most basements). My part of the river is a pretty good hurricane hole, but 16' and 100+ winds is a bit worrisome!

Edited by - on

Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/28/2010 : 17:27:09

Dave,
If it becomes obvious that the storm will make its way here to CT by Thursday, I'm thinking about moving Passage upriver near to my winter storage yard. In that area, the Housatonic is fringed by a gorge that's 200+ ft to the west and 150 ft to the east which should offer some protection.

Good news - astronomical high tides should be very low on Friday and Saturday.

This Saturday, however, I'm scheduled to begin my vacation on Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire. Scheduling could be problematic, to say the least.

Edited by - on

jerlim
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Response Posted - 08/28/2010 : 19:40:46

BoatUS forcast... http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp

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britinusa
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5404 Posts

Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 05:18:35

[url="http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007_5day.html#a_topad"]weather underground[/url]

Paul

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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9082 Posts

Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 06:33:30

They're all just showing the stuff from the [url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/"]National Hurricane Center[/url]. Pick a storm and see all about it.

This morning's update is not encouraging. Earl needs to make a bigger right turn.

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jerlim
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Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 06:59:36

it's early yet, but it seems LI is centered in the cross-hairs...

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bigelowp
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Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 07:02:21

Looks to me to be a Labor Day event -- and just a few years ago a "no name" storm caused millions in damage in my little "cove" (which is the home to three yacht clubs), I watched a Bristol 35 and 37 Pacific Seacraft that broke mooring pass by our club just to end up a few yards away where they destroyed each other against a stone (rock) and steel pier. That storm had sustained winds of 60 for @three hours with gusts to 90 -- not even a true hurricane! Maybe after today's sail I should drop all canvas

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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
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Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 07:29:25

It seems like whenever I took all the sails off, the storm went somewhere else. I guess I should offer to help you, Peter...

It's been way too many years, statistically speaking, since we've been hit here. It's gonna happen some time.

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Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 10:12:25

According to the NWS/NOAA, the coordinates for Earl will be 037N0 x 071W30 heading NW on Friday.
My coords are 041N15 x 073W07. Let's hope the trough in the great lakes moves east a little ahead of schedule...

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GaryB
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Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 17:56:58

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Voyager
 Dave,
If it becomes obvious that the storm will make its way here to CT by Thursday, I'm thinking about moving Passage upriver near to my winter storage yard. In that area, the Housatonic is fringed by a gorge that's 200+ ft to the west and 150 ft to the east which should offer some protection.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
I'm not familiar with the area you're describing but around here where the upper end of Galveston Bay narrows down to the ship channel the storm surge piles the water up even higher than along the open shoreline of the bay.

Add the usually flooding river flowing down the ship channel into the upper end of the bay against the storm surge and you have a real mess.

Just be careful!

Edited by - on

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
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Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 18:17:12

Actually, from what I know of the place Bruce is referring to, the most worrisome thing would be the powerful currents and flooding caused by the deluge up-stream from there when a hurricane makes landfall--especially if the Stevenson Dam is overwhelmed.

The good news is the "most likely" track now forecast shows Earl veering out east of Cape Cod. All of the models show it going there... But CT/RI is still in the forecast cone--there's still a lot of very fuzzy math involved here.

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/29/2010 18:18:48

Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/29/2010 : 20:57:19

Dave, while the 11PM forecast models look promising for a "near miss". weather makes no promises.

A lot depends on a trough or cold front moving across New England in time for Thursday overnight.

A high pressure center located over the Atlantic (traditional Bermuda High) is expected to retrograde (move from east to west) around that time. The squeeze between the trough and the high will determine the precise "slot" that the storm will move along. A lot depends on precise timing (like in six hour increments).

In these situations, I've seen all too many frontal passages that have been delayed by 12-24 hours. A matter of 200-300 miles either way equates to "oh, well, blew out to sea" versus " AW CRAP!, here comes the Long Island Express"!

Edited by - Voyager on 08/29/2010 20:58:42

jerlim
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Response Posted - 08/30/2010 : 04:33:37

updated projections
http://smtp.boatus.net/dm?id=4ED8C9258AEC8D70D63BA3B1A7E10381

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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
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Response Posted - 08/30/2010 : 05:43:00

The most up-to-date version is always on my link above--all others pick it up periodically from that.

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redeye
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Response Posted - 08/30/2010 : 06:03:12

I'll bet the Outer Banks are battening down. Better now than later.

Get out the lamps.

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Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/30/2010 : 19:49:08

The National Weather Service is now predicting a 50% (or better chance) of at least tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) in Central Long Island sound on Friday.

I plan on removing my sails. Thoughts on whether I should pull the boom and topping lift?

Going to double the dock lines and attach a line from the mast to the bow cleat then to the dock, and from the mast to the stern cleat then to the dock.

Luckily, I am no longer situated on the Tee End of the dock, but on the inside behind 5 other boats. Chop conditions are much less extreme now. Because of my new spot, I can attach the boat to the dock at three points (2 stern cleats and a bow cleat.

Let's hope the dock pilings have a firm footing in the soft river mud. The tops of the pilings are about 15 feet above the high tide line. You know I am going to be nearby through the duration of the blow.

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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
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Response Posted - 08/30/2010 : 20:51:37

Bruce, removing the boom is so simple, why not? Just slip it into the cabin, wrap the topping lift around the mast, and cleat it. Also wrap the halyards.

If you insist on being "nearby", don't get too heroic. 60+ winds are no time to be walking on a dock. Not only might you get blown off (and you've already been there once), but the water and the boats will be doing things you don't want to be close to. What will be, will be.

BTW, did you get my e-mail?

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/30/2010 20:55:12

GaryB
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Response Posted - 08/30/2010 : 21:06:07

Bruce,

When Hurricane Ike came to Texas I gutted my boat. Brought everything home that I could. I figured if the boat got destroyed I'd at least have enough equipment (boom, sails, brand new cushions, lines, safety gear, etc...) remaining that I could recoup at least half of what I paid for the boat.

I removed all my sails, removed the boom, removed the rudder, and wrapped the topping lift around the back-stay and tied it tight so it couldn't come loose. I can't remember for sure but I think I pulled my halyards (internal) so the shackles were at the top of the mast to keep them from blowing around.

Be sure to tighten down all your rigging so the mast doesn't start pumping. The day I went down to prep my boat for Ike the wind was already gusting to 30 or more and I could feel the mast vibrating in the wind until I tightened all the stays down really tight.

Be sure your turnbuckles have cotter pins or some other means to keep them from backing all the way off and the mast coming down.

I used duct tape to seal up around the hatch-boards, the forward hatch, the sliding hatch, and the anchor locker to keep excess water out. Be sure to get the tape off as soon as you can after the storm.

Be sure your scuppers are clear.

Make sure everything you might leave inside the boat is secured well as it will probably get thrown around if you don't.

Remove your outboard if you have time and a safe place to keep it.

As luck would have it, I had been looking for a trailer for months and finally found one a few days before Ike arrived. I didn't have time to modify it before Ike arrived so I had to leave my boat in the water.

Make sure you use chafing guards? on your dock lines. I was at a floating pier and had finger piers on each side of my boat during Ike. I pulled one set of dock lines as tight as I could get them with the idea being to keep the boat centered in the slip and to reduce the jerking on the lines so the cleats would not pull out.

I left the second set of lines (my safeties) with just a little slack so they wouldn't chafe. If the primary lines broke or chaffed through I had the second set that wouldn't have any wear on them to hopefully hold the boat during the rest of the storm.

I'm not sure how it works if you have only one finger pier and/or are docked at a fixed pier.

I did get really lucky though, from what I understand the eye of Ike went right over the top of my marina and the only problem I had was one turnbuckle backed off (no pins) and the starboard front lower shroud was blowing in the wind when I went down to check on the boat after the storm.

In fact in the marina I went to for the storm there was only one boat (out of I believe close to either 500 or 800, can't remember) that had a little dock rash.

I can promise you, if another storms sets sail for the Houston area my boat is outta here!

Good luck to all of you along the east coast!

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Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/31/2010 : 07:30:12

Dave, I did not receive your email in my bruce2sail or SBC accounts. Best to directly email from your acct.

The marina has a building with a porch set back 50 ft from the 20 ft bulkhead wall on the river. One of the dockyard guys lives upstairs. I can observe the boat from the porch and if conditions get too bad, I will bale.

I don't plan to be anywhere on the floating (rolling) docks during a blow.

Gary, I like your idea of pulling the valuables out of the boat before the storm. The engine at 100+ pounds might be a little problematic, but the rudder, the radios, the instruments, etc will be easy. My shrouds could be a bit tighter than they are currently.

The prediction is now for the worst of it to be here on Friday night. While we may get tropical storm force winds, I worry about our fellow Catalinans in RI (Shauneen) and SE Massachusetts. They'll likely be closer to the path, and much more exposed to the open Atlantic out east.

Edit: I sent a note to the yard boss and asked whether or when he plans to let people know they should clear all the crap from their boats (dinks, engines, biminis, deck chairs) and secure their boats before the storm. They probably have corporate policy spelled out for this. I am interested to see how he replies.

Edited by - Voyager on 08/31/2010 07:49:44

ruachwrights
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Response Posted - 08/31/2010 : 09:48:51

Yes I am concerned. My boat is moored in a location that gets slammed if the winds come out of the East. Friday's NOAA forecast calls for West winds but I'm not feeling relaxed. I plan on taking my sails down, securing the interior, and tying many safety lines to my mooring line so that there are back up possibilities should chafing rub through the principle mooring line. Fortunately they just serviced my mooring ball, so their should be sufficient slack to deal with a surge. Main concern is other boats snapping their lines and plowing into mine.

Vern Wright
Sailing out of Norton's Marina, East Greenwich, RI

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bigelowp
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Response Posted - 08/31/2010 : 09:56:48

My experience has been that the yards hit the panic button about six hours before the storm is to hit so if you are concerned, it's best to follow your schedule. Having had a couple sailboats on moorings through unnamed events I have been impressed at how well they do UNLESS another boat breaks mooring or the sails are still on and the head sail unfurls. The most significant damage was when an unnamed storm hit in December -- my boat was on the hard and really damaged (but it was the only boat whose cover stayed intact!) One earlier boat had the lower stay give out -- but mast stayed up. Another (non self bailing) took on a lot of water but did not go under. My plan is to see how things are going on Thursday and then decide on how much to remove. Sails will be off, but whether I strip the interior or not really depends on the forecast.

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cks
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Response Posted - 08/31/2010 : 11:42:14

I was once told that your rigging takes a lot less beating on the water than on the hard- there is some give on the water. That being said, maybe it's better to batten down on the water than haul out?

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GaryB
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Response Posted - 08/31/2010 : 13:27:42

Another good reason to own a trailer if you live along one of the coasts!

Around here the low lying coastal roads get flooded 12 - 15 hours ahead of the eye. Be sure you don't get trapped by floodwaters. That's what kills a lot of people during hurricanes.

Also remember there may be alot of people trying to evacuate and the roads could get clogged with traffic. During Hurricane Rita about a month after Katrina, most of Houston decided to evacuate and the there were traffic jams on EVERY road headed north.Even in the country.

Several people I work with made a run for it and spent 24 hours going 30 miles!!! They rode most of the storm out in their cars on the freeway. And Rita went inland 100 miles east of Houston!

Just don't mess around with your life for a $5,000 boat. It's not worth it!

Edited by - GaryB on 08/31/2010 13:29:15

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
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Response Posted - 08/31/2010 : 13:28:15

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by cks
 ...maybe it's better to batten down on the water than haul out?
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">Lotsa variables... In the water, they include wind direction, fetch, depth, mooring condition... At a dock, they include all of that plus a few... On land, you might worry about falling trees, other boats falling, a big surge floating you away... For every opinion, there's a story.

Assuming he tracks as currently predicted, Earl's winds along the CT/RI/MA southern shore should go from NE to N to NW. The closer he comes, the more easterly the winds will start, ending westerly. The weird part is when the eye goes directly through and everything turns clear and calm, for a while......

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Voyager
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Response Posted - 08/31/2010 : 14:15:28

The Yard Manager wrote me back saying that in his experience, a few people will take extraordinary precautions (as described above) before the storm, while most of his customers will just let things happen.

I wrote him back requesting him not to alarm his customers, but to inform them of "Marina Hurricane Standard Operating Procedures". When I googled these words, I got dozens of documents from Marinas all over the eastern and southern US with many good, and some unique, recommendations.

I urged him to send out a document soon including the following recommendations to inform customers of common sense things they can do to reduce problems associated with flying crap or flying boats.

Marina Hurricane SOP (a mooring field would have some different items)
1. Remove tarps, biminis, dodgers, sails or anything that looks like a sail.
2. For sailors, remove all sails and other loose appendages (booms, whisker poles, etc). Remove your transom-mounted rudder. Remove any outboard engine.
3. Remove dinks, inflatables or engines attached to the boat.
4. Remove deck chairs, floats, cushions or other unsecured items sitting on decks or docks. Make sure your dock-box or boarding steps are bolted down, or take them away.
5. Double tie all dock lines, dock your boat stern-in, secure lines to cleats and masts or other very solid fixtures or objects on your boat. Check the strength of your cleats.
6. If yours is a floating-dock marina, tie lines only to floating docks, not to fixed pilings.
7. Some marinas urge owners of two boats sharing the same finger to tie both boats together. (Hmmm)
8. Remove all loose objects from inside your boat. Remove all valuables from your boat.
9. If certain gear is permanently installed in the boat, take photos of it and find receipts, or ads with prices for similar items (for insurance purposes).
10. Take a series of photos of your boat, showing any improvements and its general condition (for insurance purposes).

Not sure what else folks can do to reduce hazards and protect themselves, but this is a pretty good start. If my marina does not send out an advisory by Thursday morning, I will email several of my dockmates with this list and ask them to forward it to others they may know at the marina.

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