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Catalina/Capri 25/250 Sailor's Forums

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Economy

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OJ
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4382 Posts

Initially Posted - 11/02/2010 : 11:53:39

Well, the economy must have recovered . . . used C25s on Craigslist are about double what they were during the summer. There's also about half the number of boats listed.

Edited by - on

piseas
Former Treasurer

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USA
2017 Posts

Response Posted - 11/02/2010 : 13:40:24

OJ, tell that to my son who has been out of work for over 1 year. I wont even talk about my customers who call me to say they need to cut back on their insurance cuz they no longer work or others who need to cancel their home insurance cuz they are in foreclosure as they lost their jobs and cant afford to make house payments! I only wished the economy had recovered. I think the majority would agree with my thoughts. By the way, I am an optimist. I have a Tee Shirt, which says, "Half Full" to prove it.

Steve A

Edited by - piseas on 11/02/2010 15:30:05

OJ
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4382 Posts

Response Posted - 11/02/2010 : 13:52:53

Edited by - on

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5376 Posts

Response Posted - 11/02/2010 : 16:11:32

Funny, there are the working folks (~80%), and the laid off folks (~10%). There's also the "very well off" around 10%.

People who have jobs - but are not sure they will keep them - are saving every penny (~20-40%). I'm consulting, but that could end in one "AW CRAP" from my client. So I don't spend an extra dime (as is evident in some of my rants).

Others, whose jobs are secure (~40-60%) are still skittish but there are folks who have confidence and a few bucks who are buying up the bargains now. That's what may be driving the demand you're seeing. Certainly not the weather. Good news is I could sell Passage (say it isn't so

) for a good price.

The very well off (who are 1 in 10) are having a field day - they can pick up the goodies for a song - compared to the "boom times". Can't blame them, but it drives prices back up.

So the divide is apparently getting wider. [Don't get me started on politics - it ain't too pretty]

Edited by - on

jerlim
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1484 Posts

Response Posted - 11/03/2010 : 07:35:27

me either - the recovery hasn't really happened yet...it's akin to saying that you are sailing while moving at 1.8 kt...yeah you are moving, but will loose ground to even a moderate current

Edited by - on

PCP777
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1225 Posts

Response Posted - 11/03/2010 : 12:10:27

OJ must be a "baller"

Edited by - on

pastmember
Master Marine Consultant

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2402 Posts

Response Posted - 11/04/2010 : 06:10:15

I teach low SES high school students, nothing has changed in their world in 10 years, they were poor before and are still poor now. Only one student Tuesday asked anything about it being election day, he asked what kind of election was happening. This is of course a good thing.

Edited by - on

DaveR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
2015 Posts

Response Posted - 11/04/2010 : 06:37:33

I've seen a small spurt in storage rentals (own a storage business) here in Daytona Beach this fall, and had a spurt last Spring as well. But still a long way to go to match 2006.

Edited by - on

Even Chance
Captain

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USA
393 Posts

Response Posted - 11/04/2010 : 14:25:30

My personal property tax on the boat went up this year. I called the County Treasurer to ask why, and she said, "Believe it or not, the Blue Book value on lots of sailboats went up this year. Your boat is now Blue Booked at $ 8500." She assessed me at the lowest BB value in the range.

Edited by - Even Chance on 11/05/2010 06:05:24

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 11/04/2010 : 16:03:43

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Even Chance
 ...she said, "Believe it or not, the Blue Book value on lots of sailboats went up this year...<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">My theory: In the poor economy, fewer sales occurred--mostly for the better boats for any given model and year, to people who were relatively comfortable financially--e.g., retirees, etc. And in more normal conditions, some of these people might have bought new. So the sample was smaller and skewed.

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 11/04/2010 16:04:46

OLarryR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3466 Posts

Response Posted - 11/04/2010 : 20:07:18

Certainly there is a lot of gloom and doom out there and for many effected by the poor economy having lost their job, there may be nothing on the horizon to improve that situation. But something eventually has to improve and it is not going to happen all at once and for all to benefit. I do believe that while there may be still addl fallout with foreclosures, etc there are some small signs that maybe things will or are getting better.

One would think that the boating industry would be really suffering this year given the fact that a boat is not a necessity and can be a very, very expensive hobby/sport. So...I was very surprised to read the following article on the recent Annapolis sailboat Show that had an increased number of vendors, increased attendance and increased sales --
http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/home/506780-annapolis-sailboat-show-sees-larger-crowds

I certainly hope things do improve soon and for all to benefit.

Edited by - on

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5376 Posts

Response Posted - 11/04/2010 : 20:26:41

Funny thing about Annapolis - its close to Washington DC, where they print the $$$.

Did you hear about the Fed's current solution for the economy called Quantitative Easing? Drove the stock market up today, and no doubt will do so again for another short spurt. Appears the Fed is expected to do this a few more times to get the economic ball rolling. They are literally printing money to drive wall st.

Was listening to bloomberg radio today, and they said that it's essentially a "sugar high". You drink a soda and you get a quick flash of energy, then later on you're sapped out. Same holds true for this move. There's no multiplier effect, unlike the "tax cut".

If you play the market then its a good thing. Get in, make your return, and get out.

For us guys out here in the weeds, it'll just be another expensive gov't program -- corporate welfare for the super rich.

Edited by - on

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 11/04/2010 : 21:41:00

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by Voyager
 ...For us guys out here in the weeds, it'll just be another expensive gov't program -- corporate welfare for the super rich.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">Well, actually it's another way to try to let banks lend more--on Wall Street, and in Stratford, Peoria, Wichita, etc. QE1 didn't work as well as hoped apparently because banks used the new capital as reserves against expected defaults, rather than lending it. This time, who knows... You can lead a horse to water, but if the horse is bleeding... ummm... well, I was hoping the metaphor might go somewhere.

Edited by - on

Even Chance
Captain

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USA
393 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 03:43:06

My observation at Annapolis was that the selection of boats on display -- and this has been a trend over the last few years -- was tilted towards larger and more expensive boats. The smallest Catalina at the show was the 309, and the dealers told me Catalina has announced the end of production of the C22 and -- there were conflicting stories at the show -- the 320. Without debating causation, it's a sheer fact that there's been a massive transfer of wealth in this country over the last thirty years towards the top of the feeding chain. Smart boat makers are building boats for the rich, not the middle class, because the rich are getting richer and will always be able to buy toys.

Edited by - on

OLarryR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3466 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 04:06:23

You may have something there in that increased sailboat sales are in many cases for the larger boats and rich people. It is relatively disappointing to go to these shows and you would thin they would be loaded with small boats on display but it is just the opposite - Mostly only large boats on display. A few Hobies, Precisions, Compacs and a few others rounded out the smaller boats but not many of them.

Edited by - on

dmpilc
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4593 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 04:33:39

Brooke, Did the guy at the show specify which C22, MkII or Sport? I could see dropping the MkII.

Edited by - on

Even Chance
Captain

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USA
393 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 05:35:01

David, they just said "Catalina 22." Apparently neither Frank Butler nor Gerry Douglas indicated whether there would be a replacement model -- a C 220 or the like -- or not. To elaborate on my larger point, this was the first boat show I've attended that Catalina didn't have a C22 and C250 on trailers. The trend is pretty obvious.

Edited by - on

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 06:42:38

If they drop the C-22 Sport, perhaps a small builder could buy the molds in order to serve the large one-design class. It's happened before...

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 11/05/2010 06:43:23

TakeFive
Master Marine Consultant

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2272 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 10:56:38

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by OLarryR
 ...I was very surprised to read the following article on the recent Annapolis sailboat Show that had an increased number of vendors, increased attendance and increased sales --
http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/home/506780-annapolis-sailboat-show-sees-larger-crowds<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
Salesmen, manufacturers, trade mags, and everyone else affiliated with the industry will always have an incentive to create a (potentially false) impression that demand is up. Because of this, I am naturally skeptical about this. Phrases like "exceeded expectations" and "numbers way above last [ridiculously horrible] year" are so loaded with caveats that they're almost meaningless.

Edited by - on

Nautiduck
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3704 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 12:26:51

I would suppose that big boats have a higher profit margin than smaller boats. Same reason why the auto companies loved the big SUVs. The middle class has definitley been hit harder than the wealthy. Hard to imagine that Catalina would drop the C22. Many of us owned one. Great little boat.

Edited by - on

TakeFive
Master Marine Consultant

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2272 Posts

Response Posted - 11/05/2010 : 12:40:20

Some models of boats may be on temporary "hiatus" because they have not been transferred from Woodland Hills to Florida. It takes time and a lot of up-front investment to train the workers and retool a different location to make another model of boat. They're going to transfer the models that can pay back that investment the fastest, which probably means the larger boats right now. As the economy recovers and "normal people" re-enter the market, maybe there will be more demand for the smaller boats. I doubt any boat manufacturer is so busy that they will ignore an opportunity to meet a significant demand for a particular class of boat.

Edited by - on

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