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 Miami: Good Night, Irene?		  New Topic  Topic Locked
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Initially Posted - 08/21/2011 :  13:36:36  Show Profile
Looks like NOAA sees Irene as a hurricane crossing Biscayne Bay Thursday evening. (Sorry, Texas. We know you're waving a big target!)
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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britinusa
Web Editor

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USA
5404 Posts
Response Posted - 08/21/2011 :  14:58:46  Show Profile  Visit britinusa's Homepage
Yep, we have already cancelled out trip this coming weekend.

Already put my eyeballs on the hurricane shutters.

Not much we can do except be prepared.


Paul
Edited by - britinusa on 08/21/2011 15:02:14
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Joe Diver
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1218 Posts
Response Posted - 08/21/2011 :  18:02:49  Show Profile
I think most of us have just resigned ourselves to waiting for October....
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5376 Posts
Response Posted - 08/21/2011 :  18:33:47  Show Profile
So what is the weather service saying, will it remain a tropical storm or is expected to build? Let's hope it stays a TS especially once it hits Hispanola. Water temps in the FLA straits are pretty warm tho....
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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/21/2011 :  18:45:44  Show Profile
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by Voyager</i>
<br />So what is the weather service saying...<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></font id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">[url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents"]This[/url].
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Voyager
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USA
5376 Posts
Response Posted - 08/21/2011 :  18:53:03  Show Profile
That's what I saw this AM on the website. While Puerto Rico and Hispanola are indicating Hurricane force winds, not so for the Bahamas, with no prediction beyond TS strength for the east coast of FLA. And of course, the fine print says somewhere "forecast subject to change without notice", so I'd be surprised if Irene did not become at least a category 1 at some point. My wife's friends in Jupiter will be keeping a close eye on this one.....
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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/21/2011 :  18:57:28  Show Profile
Look again. Right now they'er saying hurricane force hitting S. FL Thurs afternoon, and earlier the D.R. It lowers to TS as it goes over each land mass, and then picks up. (...at least the forecast does.)
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/21/2011 18:59:25
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britinusa
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5404 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  03:24:29  Show Profile  Visit britinusa's Homepage
The news seems to be leaning towards a central florida landfall, possibly reaching a cat 2 by landfall thursday.

We're going to load up the WB tomorrow unless forecast improves.

It gives guys an excuse to watch the #7 News Weather girl Julie Durda.. is she???

Paul
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redeye
Master Marine Consultant

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3476 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  04:08:41  Show Profile
&lt;&lt; Slipped alongside our house (on the trailer) &gt;&gt;

Dad usta tie down the boat on the trailer, from the cleats to trees nearby. He went through the hurricane of 47 and hasn't been the same since. :)

He was just tellin me "They opened the door to the car ( they were driving a cab ) at the sime time on both sides, and it blew the doors off."
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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  06:32:26  Show Profile
Now they have it raking the E. coast of FL up to JAX--hurricane force all the way--landfall around Cumberland Island, GA. But the cone is wide up there...
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DaveR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
2015 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  07:05:01  Show Profile  Visit DaveR's Homepage
I'm hoping Weatherunderground is right it follows the little white dots/line ............. although it sure would be nice if it spared our friends in GA & the Carolinas too.
Edited by - DaveR on 08/22/2011 07:06:18
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John Russell
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3444 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  07:19:31  Show Profile
What a science! One of those routes puts Irene right over my boat <b><i>in western Lake Erie</i></b>! I'm convinced that weather prediction is as much guesswork as science. I understand the probability thing.

Good luck to those of you in the higher probability routes.
Edited by - John Russell on 08/22/2011 08:56:33
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pastmember
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2402 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  08:07:29  Show Profile
Me thinks thou dost protest too much. The tracks narrow it down a lot to my eye. lol
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5902 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  08:21:26  Show Profile
That white track looks entirely too close to my marina, on the Chesapeake Bay. I planned on sailing my boat in a charity race at Solomon's Island this Saturday. If it continues to come that close, I might have to stay safely tucked into my slip, with doubled docklines.
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dmpilc
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4593 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  09:41:18  Show Profile
Looks like our friends at St. Simon Island, GA may have a rough go of it!
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jimhart
1st Mate

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USA
30 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  11:21:46  Show Profile
David P
Let hope it goes way east of St Simons Island.
The company I work for owns the King & Prince that is on the beach.
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  12:45:09  Show Profile
The way the forecast keeps shifting east, I'm starting to worry! And NOAA shows it becoming a "major" hurricane (&gt;110 mph) along our coast.

It's interesting that Weather Underground has their own forecast that differs from NOAA. As of 2PM EDT today, NOAA had Irene making landfall at about Charleston Saturday morning. WU's forecast isn't even within NOAA's probability cone. We'll see what happens...
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/22/2011 13:49:26
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redeye
Master Marine Consultant

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3476 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  14:02:26  Show Profile
Yepper.. they seem to be runnin east this year. Pretty weird how the pattern has been. Couple years back and everything went into the gulf, even as far down as Bonaire.

I've gotta go add lines to the boat next to me.

Go figure.
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dmpilc
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4593 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  14:30:23  Show Profile
Jimhart, St. Simons has tropical storm warnings in their forecast for Friday. I checked my friends' address on Google maps. They are somewhat inland, directly north of the airport, so maybe they'll be okay.
My younger brother and a friend co-own a boat named "Lagniappe".
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5376 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  18:02:38  Show Profile
According to the white dot theory, the 'cane makes prime landfall in SC, then heads out to sea again with a second landfall in Long Island (look out Scott), and a tertiary landfall in CT, somewhere between Dave Bristle and I.

Looks like a high pressure center will drift off the Atlantic Coast on Saturday and suck the storm right up along the coast. Hopefully it will all be over quickly!

Since I plan to be on business in DC this week, I went out to my floating dock right after work tonight and double tied my lines and double wrapped my furler and main.

Batten down the hatches y'all east coasters.
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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/22/2011 :  20:28:17  Show Profile
Bruce, I don't think it can be here bofore the weekend, but let's check your strategy here... If you wrap up your sails, it'll hit. If you take a few more minutes (not that many) to take them off and throw them in the cabin, it <i>won't</i>. It's worked for me... So I guess Irene's coming here, and I won't have to blame myself...
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/22/2011 20:31:51
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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  08:51:45  Show Profile
Looks like...

Saturday: NC.
Sunday morning: The Chesapeake.
Sunday night: Connecticut.
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OLarryR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3466 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  09:28:01  Show Profile  Visit OLarryR's Homepage
Dave,

How far has the water near your dock ever come up on the land ? Anything to worry about ? Your place is pretty close to the docking area, though, it's deep in the harbor area and would think normally a fairly protected area.
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JohnP
Master Marine Consultant

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1520 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  09:48:15  Show Profile
If Irene is heading up the Chesapeake with a 10' storm surge or greater, I will want to have my boat hauled out and tied down in the parking lot. I'll have to decide by tomorrow or Thursday to get in line for haul out.
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redeye
Master Marine Consultant

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3476 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  09:56:59  Show Profile
I hope it calms down over NC. NCBrew where are you?
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redeye
Master Marine Consultant

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3476 Posts
Response Posted - 08/23/2011 :  10:06:37  Show Profile
John.. looks like the barrel is aimed at you. I'd bet it will weaken over NC. I've heard under 100 mph and you are pretty much OK, but I don't know about the storm surge there...

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