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OJ
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4382 Posts

Initially Posted - 06/12/2013 : 15:20:41

Apparently I've lived a sheltered life as I have never heard this term until today.

Is the weather really becoming more volatile or is the 24/7 news just giving us more information?

1989 C25 TR/WK, #5822
1973 McVay Minuet 19
1975 Jester 12
1981 C25 SR/SK, #2428
1981 C22 SR/SK,
Tanzer 16
Sunfish

"There is nothing, absolutely nothing half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats." Kenneth Grahame

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binky
Navigator

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USA
115 Posts

Response Posted - 06/12/2013 : 16:45:38

Likewise

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Dave5041
Former Mainsheet Editor

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USA
3758 Posts

Response Posted - 06/12/2013 : 16:56:56

Funny that the word suddenly jumped into the public lexicon. Weather is definitely more extreme. The question we face is whether it is the predicted result of global warming or a cyclical variation. The evidence isn't there yet, but maybe we should address some of our human contribution just in case.

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TakeFive
Master Marine Consultant

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2272 Posts

Response Posted - 06/12/2013 : 20:47:57

I first heard of it last year on June 29. One blew through Maryland and destroyed numerous biminis and furled genoas. This happened only a few hours after I had returned a charter boat. Glad we didn't extend the charter by a day like we were considering!

I believe that man-made climate change is real. However, I am skeptical whether the recent weather is really any more extreme. It seems like the 24/7 news cycle has the media amping up their hype to reverse their declining ratings.

Edited by - TakeFive on 06/15/2013 15:07:33

Dave5041
Former Mainsheet Editor

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USA
3758 Posts

Response Posted - 06/12/2013 : 21:18:21

The weather in Southern Ohio has definitely been different for a few years now, not just the excessive hype. I've always said that June, October, and the sweet corn season are the only reasons to live in Ohio, but now we seem to switch off our bizarre winter weather and go straight to August. Mild to moderate drought is common, thunder snow storms were once rare events that are now commonly interspersed with 50 degree winter days. The good news is that we have a couple of traditional June days coming up in the forecast, breezy and mid-seventies.

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shnool
Former Capri-25 Tech Editor

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USA
1032 Posts

Response Posted - 06/13/2013 : 03:44:44

Since you folks opened this can of worms...
I have no doubt that climate is changing.
I dunno if man is the one responsible.
I do know that the US has done more to reduce the effects of man's possible influence on it, than most countries... but the big question is, if MAN IS responsible... will MAN ever get the WHOLE GLOBE to participate to help fix it?
Two countries off the top of my head... India, and PR China. Both are in the middle of a boon due to industrialization.

The part that really makes me wonder (and this goes for weather as a whole honestly)... is how they determine what is "normal" with only 200 years of actual data, and a couple thousand years of estimated data... for a world that is probably 5 million years old. Best they can hope for is a "local normal." This world has experienced (through empirical data) at least one severe global warming that's wiped out nearly all the larger species on it. It's also experienced at least 1 ice age, and scientific historians think there may have been a cycle of 50-70 million years where ice ages happened predictibly.. It didn't take MAN to do those.

I really do hope that we aren't making the next ones come a bit early... is all I am saying.

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Dave5041
Former Mainsheet Editor

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USA
3758 Posts

Response Posted - 06/13/2013 : 07:22:14

John, I agree with 1, 2 and the second part of 3. Power companies are still engaged in legal battles over upgrades to coal fired power plants that were "mandated" 40 years ago. The U.S. talks about doing more than most other developed nations, but the reality is quite different. Some in congress in company with the previous president actually tried a legal challenge to prevent the EPA from regulating greenhouse gases. The list of side steps around the goal is long. On the other side, many environmental activists hold on to their pie in the sky dream of a solar/wind/hydrogen world and fight against any other power source. Our current technology cannot satisfy our power demands without using nuclear and conventional fuels to boil water to spin turbines. Developed nations have already been through their scorched earth phases; developing nations take our preaching as just another way to keep them out of the club. I believe it is our duty to lead by example. I will get of my soap box and back on a boat now.

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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9089 Posts

Response Posted - 06/13/2013 : 07:28:24

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by shnool
 ...This world has experienced (through empirical data) at least one severe global warming that's wiped out nearly all the larger species on it. It's also experienced at least 1 ice age, and scientific historians think there may have been a cycle of 50-70 million years where ice ages happened predictibly.. It didn't take MAN to do those...<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">Oh boy... You almost got me [url="http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://globalclimate.ucr.edu/images/evidence_CO2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://globalclimate.ucr.edu/resources.html&h=348&w=700&sz=62&tbnid=l_m8nwdHAessyM:&tbnh=60&tbnw=120&zoom=1&usg=__JOhOui7rYEAtCC0W4sgj0NbzvQY=&docid=WlZUbclhm8xdlM&sa=X&ei=yce5Ua7XHcPx0wGViYGoBQ&ved=0CEIQ9QEwAw&dur=24677"]started![/url] Over and out.

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glen
Captain

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359 Posts

Response Posted - 06/13/2013 : 08:17:47

OMG Off come the gloves
Should I add fuel to this fire? WTH
YES man should shoulder some of the blame, but sometimes I think the world has gone mad.
So here we go. The following is from the Net so we know it's true (right)
WEATHER EXTREMES WHIPSAW DETROIT
Vice-President Albert Gore, self-proclaimed Pulitzer Prize winner Ross Gelbspan and others claim fossil fuels create greenhouse gases that warm the atmosphere and cause weather extremes and severe storms. Let's look at the record for Detroit, and see if the evidence supports this theory.

'16. Ice formed every month of the year. But just six years later, the weather was so mild that flowers bloomed in mid-winter and a ship was able to cross Lake Erie in mid January. And then in May of the following year, there was a foot of snow on the ground.

'26. Unseasonably warm weather caused grass to grow a foot high in January.

'45. Small ships were able to cross Lake Erie and reach Detroit every month of the entire winter.

'56. The Detroit area experienced frosts every month, including heavy ones on July 3 and 4 that ruined fruit and vegetable crops.

'68-70. Turbulent weather continued to whipsaw Detroit. The area experienced six snowstorms during April of '68, the last one on the 25th. Heavy snowstorms hit the area a year later on April 13, and again on October 23 - with frosts in between, on August 17, 18 and 19. The ensuing winter was so bitter that piled-up ice in the St. Claire Flats was still 10 feet high on April 26 of '70. Little rain fell all summer in '69, kicking off a severe 3-year drought that led to horrible forest fires in September and October three years later.

'73-75. On January 29 of '73, the temperature ranged from 18 below to 35 below zero Fahrenheit. In '74, ice formed on May 7 - but the next month the temperature hit 98 degrees. And in '75, after another bitterly cold winter, a tornado roared through Detroit on June 27, killing two persons.

'76-77. Ice in the Detroit River was already a foot thick in December. Mid-month gales piled up river ice and snow into a scene reminiscent of Antarctica. A month later, in mid-January, a snowstorm paralyzed the city. But early February produced extraordinary warmth. Then on March 20th, Detroit was hit by heavy snowfall accompanied by lightning that set off the City Hall bell.

'77-78. The temperatures a year later were incredibly warm - the first ice didn't form on the river until February 9, and the winter's first snow fell on February 11. But the summer of '78 was torrid. For a week in July the temperatures ranged up to 100 degrees.

'78-79. All through January and February, the temperature stayed above freezing. But a frost occurred on June 17. On August 1, a thunderstorm produced walnut-sized hail.

Proof positive that global warming causes violent weather extremes? Before you conclude that Messrs. Gore and Gelbspan must be right, note that all these events occurred in the
Nineteenth Century: in 1816 - 1879!
[Based on June 20, 1998 Detroit News article by freelance writer Daniel Hager. The above weather data were collected from "History of Detroit and Wayne County and Early Michigan" by Silas Farmer, published in 1890. ]

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OLarryR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3478 Posts

Response Posted - 06/13/2013 : 09:33:44

Yes - The weather does seem to be changing ! Glen's post shows the scenario that occurred eons ago and...don't they say that history repeats itself.

So, we have global warming...the icebergs melt...breakdown and come floating to lower regions...setting up different weather patterns...some warmer, some colder, drought and more stormy conditions. Heck....just a couple of hours ago it started to hail outside in my region looking out toward the Anacostia River very close to the Potomac. Weather today was predicted to be with big storms and winds as high as 60mph. And these changing weather patterns were also noted in the that movie swhile ago called....what was it called "The Day After Tomorrow".......Cold windy weather all of asudden stopped and in the distance could be seen ice forming on the buildings ! if that happens...we are really in for it !!! and too late to book a flight for the southern regions !!

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glen
Captain

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359 Posts

Response Posted - 06/13/2013 : 11:30:35

Thank you Larry, you summed up my thoughts precisely

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shnool
Former Capri-25 Tech Editor

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USA
1032 Posts

Response Posted - 06/13/2013 : 11:57:38

By the way, it's not "global warming," it's "climate change." <Tongue firmly planted in cheek>

Seriously folks, all politics aside... The weather for sure is wild these days. I feel for my friends out west who've had little to no rain. The great lakes are at all (recorded history) time lows... and here we stand getting flooded out the wazoo... It certainly isn't "typical."

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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5431 Posts

Response Posted - 06/15/2013 : 19:47:42

My daughter brought home a book from library (anachronistic, no?) about earth's ice ages. While the book began with a description of climate change (circa 1995) and dimming of sunlight due to soot in the atmosphere, one of the primary theses of the book is that the impending ice age is actually overdue. Problem with an ice age, the book went on, is that this would largely reduce the "carrying capacity" of the earth. That infers mass starvation as the food producing capability declines and the population continues to soar. As a rule, ice ages arrive precipitously.
Moral of the story is we have been enjoying an extended balmy period for the last 18,000 years. The book provided me quite an interesting perspective on time and mortality

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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9089 Posts

Response Posted - 06/15/2013 : 20:32:16

This graph is out of date--the level is at about 400 now, and the rate of increase is increasing.

No historical evidence, from Antarctic ice cores or whatever, matches this. What coincidentally changed in these past 50 years? The rate at which we're converting millions of years of carbon sequestered in the earth (coal, oil and gas) into CO2 in the atmosphere. Then there's the problem of the "feedback loop" where warming is melting the permafrost in Siberia, releasing methane that further increases global warming.

Sorry if somebody takes this a politics--I take it as science. I also like to think the people who think there's nothing we can do about it will be viewed, some time in the future, as we view the people who once said man would never fly, or who could have never imagined the power and capacity of the little devices we carry in our pockets and call phones, which among other things are helping to transform much of the continent of Africa.

And apologies for this not being about sailing...

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shnool
Former Capri-25 Tech Editor

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USA
1032 Posts

Response Posted - 06/16/2013 : 04:51:52

Dave, I'll do you the service of not responding, because this forum is not about politics... we can take it to sailnet if you'd like.

It takes very little effort to notice a problem with that graph.

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pastmember
Master Marine Consultant

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2402 Posts

Response Posted - 06/16/2013 : 16:10:41

All I know is life is a blessing that we all need to be grateful for and every species and every individual simply finds themselves where they are. What was the old saw(?) "Where ever you are, there you are". We should all do what we can to mitigate our impact on this amazing planet and all the while realize that Mother Nature can... and will take us out.

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