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Sandy's a comin'

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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
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Initially Posted - 10/24/2012 : 13:35:57

Last weekend, my local "expert" TV meteorologist mentioned the possibility of a deep low pressure center forming in the mid atlantic area on Tuesday. Could be a noreaster. He said that so far this October it has been unusually warm and dry but that changes are afoot.

Today I've read that TS Sandy is in the western Caribbean and aiming for a straight shot up the East Coast. The trough that would produce Tuesday's event could guide the 'cane right there. Too soon to tell.

Some models put Sandy right up the east coast, others put her further out to sea.
No idea of the strength at this time but FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, ME are in line. With a full moon, surge plus tidal flooding are a major concern.

Oh October! Look out.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

Edited by - Voyager on 10/24/2012 13:40:56

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 10/24/2012 : 14:58:51

S/he (?) is a hurricane now, but is forecast to be a "post-tropical" storm as she approaches the NE. (I'm not sure what "post" means here.) The current track forecast takes her out past Cape Cod next Tuesday, but CT is in the cone of uncertainty. The timing in highly inconvenient for me.

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 10/24/2012 15:00:22

britinusa
Web Editor

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USA
5404 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 02:48:56

We're feeling the winds from Sandy already. Nothing to worry about if it keeps to the schedule... But have to keep an eye on it.

Paul

Edited by - on

Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 05:10:00

The track is now forecast right at us in CT, RI, and MA, being pushed back in by the storm in the N. Atlantic.

Edited by - on

DaveR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
2015 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 07:01:18

It's taken quite an Easterly turn in the past several hours As shown on [url="http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_sat.html"]Weatherunderground[/url]. Hopefully will continue this track and be too far east to be pushed back in.

Edited by - on

Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5902 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 11:10:35

The 5 day track on Weatherunderground sure looks good to most of us along the east coast. I hope it goes that way!

Edited by - on

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 11:34:13

Weather Underground is just showing [url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents"]NHC's forecast[/url], which at the moment has her turning into NJ Tuesday morning, with NC to MA in the cone of uncertainty. That turn is expected due to a system in the N. Atlantic that won't let her do the usual arc out to sea. But everything's moving around... An update is due any minute... (2PM EDT)

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 10/25/2012 18:07:26

Voyager
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5369 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 17:26:40

Tomorrow afternoon I plan on pulling the sails to prep for the storm. I wanted to take down the mast before next weekend when I plan to sail upriver to my winter storage marina. My buddy who was planning to help me with the mast will instead be prepping his boat this weekend, so the mast will stay up.
I checked with my winter quarters to see whether they could haul me this weekend, but since I'd already scheduled my haul next week, they could not accommodate me. So I plan to stay on my floating dock through the storm.
According to NOAA NWS this storm is expected to be a long duration wind and rain event.
Starting on Sunday night, building to a crescendo on Tuesday and settling down by Thursday with chilly conditions, I don't know what I'll find. I'm planning to double up my lines and use all six dock cleats (both mine and my neighbors'), I hope the lines don't chafe and the screw-type moorings don't pull out. While the moon will be full, spring tides won't be abnormally high, but the forecasters worry that persistent NE winds will create a surge.
After I make my preps, all I can do is wait and watch from shore.
I'm kind of glad I won't be going to my winter quarters because if they aren't able to haul me until Monday, their docks are very exposed and don't offer the protection I'll get on my floating dock.
I'm hoping by next Saturday it'll all be over but the shouting and I'll be able to take my time and get to my winter quarters without incident.

Edited by - on

bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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1776 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 18:09:57

AND -- in addition to all of the above, they are now saying that a cold weather system in the NW will be hitting at the same time possibly causing the rain, especially on the western side -- to be snow!

I am glad -- I think -- that both boats are out for the season.

Edited by - on

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 10/25/2012 : 20:00:39

Sarge is at her storage marina, but the list for haul-outs has been growing by the minute. They are "hopeful" for me... I'm hoping for a distant landfall, limiting us to a big rain event. (Sorry NJ.

) A storm surge is almost certain anyway, coincident with the full-moon tide. As long as it isn't like the 1938 hurricane in CT, it's better than a big earthquake or wildfire. I get it when the wind blows--I grew up in the Midwest with the huge storms moving across the plains--but when the earth moves or fire approaches, it brings on a primordial fear. I guess I'd feel the same thing in the Japanese or Indonesian tsunami.

Edited by - on

TCurran
Admiral

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USA
588 Posts

Response Posted - 10/26/2012 : 03:17:55

The C-25 is safe and on its trailer, the W-25 is well secured in its slip. Since I manage the marina I will be able to keep an eye on both. We are expecting 30-40 knot wind, gusts to 50, and rain bands. Nothing as bad as what they're forecasting you folks in the NE. Good luck and stay safe.

Edited by - on

redeye
Master Marine Consultant

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3476 Posts

Response Posted - 10/26/2012 : 03:43:03

Frankenstorm... Post-tropical.. I think that's how I'm feeling...

This morning it looks like they have it coming ashore a little farther south than before. Looks like a lotta water...

Edited by - redeye on 10/26/2012 03:57:55

JohnP
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Response Posted - 10/26/2012 : 08:37:40

Friday at 11 AM Sandy's landfall is predicted for anywhere from the Chesapeake Bay up to Long Island.

With Isabel in 2011 we had exceedingly LOW tides with water being pushed out of the bay into the ocean. Boats were hanging on their dock lines on our fixed docks. Some sailboats were sitting on their keels in the mud with low tide that was 3 feet lower than usual. I had my boat pulled out and stored in the parking lot that week.

NOAA predicts that the Chesapeake will get hit by the left side of the storm with north and then west winds:

MON
N WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. WAVES 5 FT. SHOWERS.

TUE
N WINDS 50 TO 60 KT...BECOMING W 45 TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SW 40 TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...BECOMING W
25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY...

For Sandy, I plan to leave my boat in the water, tie additional tarps over the cabintop for all the rain, remove equipment, and then take Tuesday off work to adjust the docklines if needed. I can also remove the rudder if low tide is super-low.

Looks like power outages and downpours for lots of folks from here northward.

Good luck if you're in Sandy's path!

Edited by - on

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5369 Posts

Response Posted - 10/26/2012 : 21:05:45

This morning I moved Passage to the same docks I used to ride out Hurricane Irene. The sun was quite warm and the breeze mild, so I enjoyed it tremendously. The nose is pointing NE, so I think the windage will be minimal.
This evening I went back to pick up my sails and other gear. I'm the only blowboater surrounded by stinkpotters. We're all in it together though and this evening I was invited by several captains to enjoy a drink with them.
What a party atmosphere. Some folks will be staying aboard all week and will keep track of the weather and the boats. I warned the group that last time the parking lot got flooded with 4ft of water, so while everybody's boat was just fine, their cars got totaled.
I'll be there tomorrow morning taping up the crib boards and pulling the cushions. I'll be removing all the unnecessary gear and put on my double lines.
I plan to return the favor and bring a cooler full of adult beverages and some hot dogs and buns along.
I'm planning to stick around on Sunday as conditions worsen to check on the lines.
I'm wondering whether I should remove the rudder. I'd hate to see it get damaged.
I'm preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

Edited by - on

binky
Navigator

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USA
115 Posts

Response Posted - 10/26/2012 : 21:38:52

The Navy was moving some of their boats today. Here is the Abe Lincoln heading inland.

Edited by - binky on 10/26/2012 21:41:45

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9080 Posts

Response Posted - 10/27/2012 : 15:49:35

Last I heard, the sub base in Groton was debating whether to move their attack subs out to sea. I suspect the current forecast suggests no.

Bruce: What do you envision that would damage the rudder? You will, of course, want to remove it before winter (I assume), but if somebody is maneuvering the boat to a lift, the rudder it a lot easier than the outboard. (Have you tried steering with the outboard and no rudder? It's kinda flaky--lots of over-steering.)

Sarge is out of the water--a pleasant surprise given the list the marina had when I arrived. It helps to be a friend of the owner.

I'll be watching from very far away as Sandy passes to the west--hopefully with not quite tropical storm force winds in Mystic. The marina has a controllable webcam--I'll be looking in (if there's power there).

I feel worst for the folks in W. Va, PA, and NY, where there could be 1-2' of wet, tropical storm force wind-driven snow hitting trees that still have leaves. That'll bring them down or break them in half, in very large numbers. Restoring power in that circumstance is a loooooooooooong process. In NJ, of course, it's floods--it often seems worse than New Orleans.

Stay safe--I'm outa here!

Edited by - on

pfduffy
Captain

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USA
317 Posts

Response Posted - 10/27/2012 : 18:28:33

I live in NJ - just outside of Philadelphia and I'm very confused by the current state of things. States of emergency are being declared, evacuations of barrier islands are underway 60 miles to my east and yet we are not under either a hurricane watch or warning?? What gives???

Edited by - pfduffy on 10/27/2012 18:30:44

binky
Navigator

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USA
115 Posts

Response Posted - 10/27/2012 : 19:13:30

I think the weather folks are still unsure what is going to happen. Sandy is currently (or wil be) passing east of Norfolk and no one knows where it will go from there. I just hope it hangs off the coast long enough to limit the storm surge here. I have been at the marina several times today....just checking the boat.

This is my first experience with hurricane weather and a boat in the water, I'm a bit paranoid at the moment. My pier mate looked over my lines today and said they looked good to him. I have new lines all around and plenty of fenders around the finger pier. Unfortunately I am on the end of the pier so I am taking a bit of a beating with the wind/waves. Hopefully, we will come out of this without a major disaster.

Edited by - on

TakeFive
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Response Posted - 10/27/2012 : 19:41:58

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by binky
 I think the weather folks are still unsure what is going to happen. Sandy is currently (or wil be) passing east of Norfolk and no one knows where it will go from there. I just hope it hangs off the coast long enough to limit the storm surge here. I have been at the marina several times today....just checking the boat.

This is my first experience with hurricane weather and a boat in the water, I'm a bit paranoid at the moment. My pier mate looked over my lines today and said they looked good to him. I have new lines all around and plenty of fenders around the finger pier. Unfortunately I am on the end of the pier so I am taking a bit of a beating with the wind/waves. Hopefully, we will come out of this without a major disaster.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
Often there are empty slips this time of year. Are you sure that you can't move to a safer location in the marina? My marina is down to about 25% occupancy since the summer season ends Oct. 31, and they require a winter rental starting Nov. 1. The people who are riding it out are all moving to more protected inner slips.

Alternatively, it you're at the T-end, would the marina allow you to set an anchor off the end of the T-dock that you could use to hold you away from the pier?

Edited by - on

bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
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Response Posted - 10/27/2012 : 19:47:20

Having, regrettably, too much experience with boats in hurricanes the key is to reduce windage, which means all sails off, etc, and to make sure all hatches are secure so to minimize water that works its way into the bilge, etc. While my boat is currently on the hard, it has been my experience that the only major damage I have experienced was when the boat has been on the hard! In that case the boat, fully tarp-covered for the season ended up in the middle of a club house twenty feet away with four holes in the bottom from the poppets and no rudder! However in other storms, when in water, the boat seems to respond better to wave/surge/wind conditions and the give and take from water is better than the unforgiving poppets/trailers that secure boats in marinas and back yards.

Mother nature will provide the weather regardless of our desires, however make sure that all that can be done to prevent taking water or blowing around is done and . . . . make sure the insurance is paid!

Edited by - on

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5369 Posts

Response Posted - 10/27/2012 : 20:33:50

I double tied Passage to a solid, floating dock, sealed the crib boards and taped the louvers with duct tape, removed all valuables and handy item ( stoves, lanterns, flashlights, battery radios) from the boat, double checked the poptop and dumpster holddowns and closed the seacocks - near as I can figure, have done my best to prepare to ride out the storm.

The question mark now is whether the fixed slips will rise 12 ft over the top of the pilings in any surge. In Irene we had a day-long tropical storm. This one will be a 48-36 hour 55-60 mph blow so LI Sound could fill up with more water - I don't know.

One of the old timers told me that the floating docks (as opposed to the fixed slips) are rated for a 15 ft tidal surge with its screw-in moorings and compensating anchor lines. At this point I will stand pat and figure what will be will be.
I reckon we'll see by Wednesday what was the right decision.

Edited by - Voyager on 10/27/2012 20:55:20

TakeFive
Master Marine Consultant

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Response Posted - 10/27/2012 : 21:39:05

I had previously scheduled for haulout today so we pulled out as scheduled. I can see how staying in the water might actually be safer (despite what BoatUS says), since boat stands have no "give" when subjected to the severe torques that can be caused by windage against the mast. The boat either stays perfectly vertical or falls over, while on water it can heel gradually. I'm considering putting in some ground anchors tomorrow to tie the boat down.

As mentioned already, the risk of staying on a floating dock is the possibility of it floating off the pilings, which has an element of luck whether the surge corresponds to high or low tide.

On that subject, here's some stuff I just posted on Facebook:

Storm related flooding on the Delaware River can be very unpredictable because of the influence of natural tides caused (mostly) by gravity from the moon. Near Philadelphia, the typical tidal swing is about 6-7 feet (higher during full and new moons), and high tide occurs about every 12.5 hours. When a storm hits the shore, the impact of its surge can be greatly affected by whether it arrives at high tide or low tide. [url="http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-mp/data_plot.cgi?mins&datum=6&unit=1&stn=8545240&bdate=20110827&edate=20110829&data_type=wl&relative&type=Historic+Tide+Data&shift=g&plot_size=large&wl_sensor_hist=W1&plot_backup"]The picture in this link[/url] shows the tidal data in Philadelphia when Irene hit last year. The blue curve is the tidal prediction for normal conditions, the red points are the actual tidal readings, and the green points the residual, or difference between the actual and predicted. In the green curve, you can clearly see that there was a 5 foot storm surge that traveled right up the river from the ocean. Fortunately, its peak corresponded almost exactly with low tide, so its impact was modest. If it had hit right at high tide, there would have been a 12 foot high tide! So it is a matter of luck whether the storm surge for Sandy will correspond with high tide.

Here's the interesting part. Whether it's a storm surge or a normal tidal fluctuation, these waves travel up the river at about 17 mph, making the 100 mile trip from the mouth of the Delaware Bay to Philadelphia in 6 hours. [url="http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-mp/data_plot.cgi?mins=&datum=6&unit=1&stn=8557380&bdate=20110827&edate=20110829&data_type=wl&relative=&type=Historic%20Tide%20Data&shift=g&plot_size=large&relative=&wl_sensor_hist=W1&plot_backup="]Here is the plot for Lewes, Delaware[/url], where you can see that the storm surge also corresponded to low tide, but it hit 6 hours earlier (6 am instead of noon). So it would seem obvious that the people in Philadelphia can get 6 hours advance notice of how high the storm surge is actually going to be. Why don't the local news shows give out this information when they do their drop-by-drop round the clock coverage?

One other interesting point: Note that the storm surge was only 4 feet in Lewes, but grew to 5 feet in Philadelphia. How could it get stronger as it goes up river? I believe the reason is that as the Delaware Bay narrows into the upper river, all that extra water has nowhere to go but up. I've seen wave pools designed to take advantage of this effect. Similarly, you can see that the normal tidal range was 5 feet in Lewes, but grew to 6-7 feet in Philly.

Edited by - TakeFive on 10/27/2012 21:41:23

islander
Master Marine Consultant

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4024 Posts

Response Posted - 10/28/2012 : 06:16:51

I'm also in the water like Bruce, Sails off, Double tied, Bimini off, Crib boards taped. In my Marina I won't have any wave action and my boat faces east so with the winds coming in from the easterly direction is a plus but I have my doubts that the floating docks will hold. In Irene they lifted to within 6" of the top of the pilings. This storm surge will be far worse. I may be parting out a boat after this Hell-o-ween storm is over. Nothing to do but wait now.

Edited by - on

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5369 Posts

Response Posted - 10/28/2012 : 07:37:51

Scott - I can't get an accurate indication of predicted surge - local TV stations are saying 4-8 while the Weather Channel says 7-11. I do know this however.
1. Irene made landfall in NYC, Sandy will be a bit south of that. The angle of the strongest winds will be more direct into LI Sound.
2. Irene was tropical storm when she hit us. Gusts were strong but only blew for 12 hours around peak. Sandy's a Cat 1.
3. Sandy will blow for a lot longer. While a Cat 1, she has yet to cross the 86 degree Gulf Stream which will intensify her.
4. She's running into a powerful jet stream with cold air over warm. This will crank up winds some more.
About surge - I think they're underestimating it.
5. But when we had Irene, western LI Sound had an 8 ft spring tide. This time we're at 7.1 on Monday and Tuesday.
It's a crap shoot.

I've got a few more hours today to go to my floating dock seems that it might be a safer bet after all.

Edited by - on

GaryB
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4304 Posts

Response Posted - 10/28/2012 : 10:05:01

Find a hurricane hole marina or the most protected marina you can get into even if it's not where you normally dock, preferably with floating docks with tall poles. Sails, outboard, all covers/tarps/bimini, boom, and rudder off and stowed in the cabin or at home. I took all of the above off plus all of my interior cushions and brought them home thinking if the boat was destroyed I could sell these items and recoup some of the loss. Tape every opening with duct tape, tighten the rigging down tight so the mast doesn't start pumping, double up the lines, and pray. If you're on a floating dock tie your lines tight so the boat does not jerk against the cleats. If you're on a fixed dock you will have to leave slack so the boat can rise and fall with the surge.

When Ike came through here I moved my boat to a marina that was surrounded on all four sides with the exception of a narrow channel leading into the marina. Three out of four sides of the marina had high banks around it with condos on two of those sides so it really helped protect the marina from some of the wind. The docks were floating with 15' poles that the marina rode up and down on. Someone marked the pole in my slip when the surge reached its peak. It was approx. 12' above normal water level and within 3' of the top of the poles.

Most of the wind during the peak of Ike hit the boat head-on so that helped some too.

After the storm I went down to check on the boat and there was not a scratch on it. The only problem I had was one of the turnbuckles on a forward lower shroud had unwound and the shroud was blowing in the breeze. Two minutes and I was ready to sail. Only one boat was damaged in the entire marina (800+ boats) and the marina manager said that boat was apparently about to sink anyway due to lack of maintenance.

In contrast, the fixed dock I'd moved my boat from just before the storm was almost entirely destroyed with only one boat still floating that was undamaged. The C27 in the slip next to my now vacated slip floated up and over the pilings and ended up in my slip (more or less undamaged). The boat directly across from my vacated slip was driven through the dock and ended up on the bottom in the slip next to the one I'd vacated. There were many boats in the marina sitting on shore, sunk, or heavily damaged.

Another marina further up the ship channel had 10' poles it rode on and the ENTIRE marina floated off the poles and was balled up on the shoreline with all of the boats still attached to the docks. From what I understand ALL (at least 100) were destroyed or heavily damaged.

Hopefully everyone will come through, safe, sound, and secure. we will keep you all in our prayers. I think everyone should check in here on this site so we know you're OK.

Also, this information is strictly based on my limited experience and I do NOT recommend you take ANY of my advice as the proper way to do anything. It is strictly based on what I did and the results. I was extremely lucky. There are thousands of factors that effect every circumstance and NONE of the information contained in this post may work for you! Use it at your own risk!!!!

Edited by - GaryB on 10/28/2012 10:12:29

delliottg
Former Mainsheet C250 Tech Editor

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USA
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Response Posted - 10/28/2012 : 11:01:54

The latest [url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/152346.shtml?gm_track#contents"]NOAA storm track[/url] shows Sandy coming ashore right across Atlantic City. We'll be keeping our fingers crossed for your welfare as well as your boat's. Keep your heads down and remember that boats can be replaced. Like Gary suggested, please check in if you have a chance.

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