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 Tropical storm season '16		  New Topic  Topic Locked
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5851 Posts
Response Posted - 09/03/2016 :  07:45:57  Show Profile
quote:
Originally posted by Stinkpotter

Now they think the center will be about 200 miles east of Annapolis--then she slows to a crawl toward Nantucket, reaching hurricane force briefly about off NJ. Steve appears to be safe.
The wind is howling here, but there's no risk to boats in their slips. The racing today was cancelled. We'll see about Sunday and Monday. The race committee sent two boats out to the race venue this morning to see if we could race and found that "...winds were 23-25 sustained with gusts to 28Kts with a rough sea state."
Steve Milby J/24 "Captiva Wind"
previously C&C 35, Cal 25, C25 TR/FK, C22
Past Commodore
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 09/03/2016 :  18:57:31  Show Profile
It was really beautiful out today on LI Sound. I think we're in for a stretch of crappy weather here at Labor Day weekend so my goal was to pack in two days of intense sailing on Friday & Saturday. Breeze and seas foretold the story NE-erlies at 10 - 12kts with gusts to 15. 3 foot rollers at 3-4 seconds out of the East. This is going to build overnight then throughout Sunday until we have 35kts with 45kt gusts. Seas will get ugly here tomorrow night. No telling for how long, although the NWS NOAA tells us a cold front is due to push everything out by Thursday.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1736 Posts
Response Posted - 09/04/2016 :  05:39:24  Show Profile
Saturday did turn into a beautiful sailing day on western Long Island Sound and today Sunday, during the day, should be similar albeit winds will be increasing. It appears we will be a little but lucky and get less wind than originally projected (15-20kts with gusts to 35kts) and far less rain (which we really need) BUT the storm surge projection has increased due to the track of the storm. The farther west on the sound the worse it will be. Anyone in a slip should make sure they have made adequate precautions. I am on a mooring so not only need I worry about my bridal but ALL the boats around me. It only takes one to break loose to cause LOTS of damage.
Peter Bigelow
C-25 TR/FK #2092 Limerick
Rowayton, Ct
Port Captain: Rowayton/Norwalk/Darien CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 09/04/2016 :  10:34:18  Show Profile
I spent three hours yesterday afternoon prepping my boat for tropical storm force winds. I put on my half inch dock lines and put on my big fenders and spent three hours not sailing to prep for the storm. It was a beautiful night last night and a delightful late summer morning with just enough wind to make it interesting.
I'm glad the storm never hit but I feel like I've wasted three perfectly good late summer days fretting about something that never happened. I think I'll go back down to the harbor and take the boat out of mothballs now and have a good sale today and tomorrow on Labor Day. Let's hope this is the last of our tropical weather for this year.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3992 Posts
Response Posted - 09/04/2016 :  10:50:37  Show Profile
I was just thinking about the same thing. Sat. Morning I went down and double lined the boat. I folded up the Bimini and put lines around the sails. This is looking like I wasted a good sailing day. Today although a bit breezy is a beautiful day. Nothing the forecasters have said has come true.
Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts
Response Posted - 09/04/2016 :  10:53:11  Show Profile
First of all, Bruce, it ain't over--she's just stalled off DE and NJ, and the slower she goes, the stronger she gets and the harder it is to predict her path. Monday evening into Wed. now looks like the big blow--especially on my end of the Sound. All of the CT shore is still under a T/S Warning, with T/S winds extending 200+ miles from her center.

Second, bite your tongue about "last for the year"!
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/04/2016 10:57:09
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3992 Posts
Response Posted - 09/04/2016 :  12:40:02  Show Profile
quote:
Originally posted by islander

A friend just texted me wondering where I was. Said the sailing was great with winds 14-24. My guess they will drop the T/S warnings later tonight. This storm is much farther out than where they predicted. Even if it jogged west a little it would have much less impact here. Breezy at best.Just my guess.
Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 09/04/2016 :  18:48:35  Show Profile
quote:
Originally posted by Stinkpotter


Second, bite your tongue about "last for the year"!


Ha! Just wishful thinking on my part. I've heard the dire predictions from Colorado of multiple major 'caines with US mainland landfalls this season but this one has been a Duende, lurking as a TD all across the Atlantic basin from the Cape Verdes, sneaking across the Windwards and Leewards and finally growing into a Cat 1 in the Gulf of Mexico and turning NE over FL, GA and the Carolinas - only to threaten us now.
Hermine's 15 minutes of fame is OVER! Next!
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1736 Posts
Response Posted - 09/04/2016 :  18:48:47  Show Profile
Yes, it ain't over. Yes, mid week may be the wallop. and Yes, the season is not over . . . . yet. But still, geese, we all missed nice weekend!
Peter Bigelow
C-25 TR/FK #2092 Limerick
Rowayton, Ct
Port Captain: Rowayton/Norwalk/Darien CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts
Response Posted - 09/05/2016 :  08:56:23  Show Profile
quote:
Originally posted by islander
...This storm is much farther out than where they predicted. Even if it jogged west a little it would have much less impact here. Breezy at best.Just my guess.
It's a little further out, but apparently moving NW toward us in eastern L.I. and CT right now before it turns out again. Tonight will be blustery over here.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 09/13/2016 :  17:51:27  Show Profile
TS Ian looks to be moving towards Lapland. There's a big red X at sea near Savannah GA that's yet to be named but it has been given a 70% chance of going tropical in the next few days. If so it would be Julia.
That's a particularly bad spot since it's over 85° water and very close to land. If it moved in a westerly direction it would be a rainmaker but if NE parallel to the SC, Nc and VA coast it could be troublesome. Dead east would be fine provided it doesn't hook north.
Too soon to tell what will be but it warrants watching closely.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 09/14/2016 :  07:45:46  Show Profile
So Julia did form overnight and our friends in SE GA, NE FL and SC are in for a breezy rainstorm. Get out the lifeboats if you live in the Holler. She is predicted to fade away shortly. Way better than a buzz saw Cat 2 or 3 tearing up the Outer Banks!
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts
Response Posted - 09/15/2016 :  18:19:59  Show Profile
Now it's TD-12 we watch--predicted to slide north of PR heading inside of Bermuda toward the US coast. "It ain't over till it's over." ...and then it starts again.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts
Response Posted - 09/16/2016 :  06:43:43  Show Profile
...and his name is Karl.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 09/16/2016 :  09:20:57  Show Profile
And Karl sounds like a pretty serious name for a storm.

Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel gave his view on how he thinks Karl will go - he said "it'll track straight across the Atlantic in the Trade Winds and make it into the Windward Islands." Then he said "there'll be a decision point due to an expected front - where the storm will either turn to the North where it'll head up along the Eastern Seaboard or it will proceed into the Gulf of Mexico toward Cancun."

After he made all these very strong assertions about a set of phenomena that is governed almost entirely by Chaos Theory, he back pedaled saying that "it's way too soon to tell what will happen." "Stay tuned to the Weather Channel for updates in the next week."

Selling soap, I reckon...
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts
Response Posted - 09/16/2016 :  12:36:41  Show Profile
Kinda silly puffery... He has no idea--the Weather Channel passes along what they get from the NHC, which now has the entire cone of uncertainty passing outside of the islands and pointing toward Bermuda. Extrapolating from that highly uncertain track you could imagine it affecting the Mid-Atlantic and/or New England coast as a hurricane as early as next weekend.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/16/2016 12:39:14
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 09/18/2016 :  06:15:54  Show Profile
As the NHC gets more info on Karl's probable path, the timing is coming to light too. This chart projects out to Friday Sept 23 with the storm at hurricane strength between Bermuda and the Bahamas and possibly hooking up with Julia's meandering remnants off the SE Coast of the US.

Depending on what mid-latitude weather it encounters (cold front, upper level low or Bermuda High) will determine the track of the storm. It could plow westward straight ahead into the Carolinas, hook right up the eastern seaboard or meander like Julia and slowly wind down.

Only time will tell, and the news outlets will capitalize on it if they can...
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts
Response Posted - 09/18/2016 :  07:34:33  Show Profile
Ya, whatever has Julia all confused might also capture Karl--SC could be in for a long slog. Alternatively, Karl's current arc could put him right HERE.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 10/01/2016 :  11:15:26  Show Profile
Ummm .... Matthew. Went from an X @ 50% on Wednesday to a Category V yesterday. It's been heading due west scaring the folks in Aruba and Cartageña where hurricanes never go, and now it's gonna hook due north to clip Port A'Prince and Jamaica. Next onto Gitmo Cuba then the Bahamas as a 'major' hurricane by Tuesday. N. Florida, Georgia, SC next?
Looks like a ba-dass storm. A little like the path of the storm of '38.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1736 Posts
Response Posted - 10/04/2016 :  12:34:47  Show Profile
Lucky me: I am away while the fleet lies at anchor with "something" bearing down on it.
Peter Bigelow
C-25 TR/FK #2092 Limerick
Rowayton, Ct
Port Captain: Rowayton/Norwalk/Darien CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5232 Posts
Response Posted - 10/04/2016 :  12:47:41  Show Profile
While the National Weather Service keeps the future path of the storm generic, the Weather Channel is putting the storm in N Florida and SC on Friday, Washington DC and tidewater DelMarVa on Saturday and NYC on Sunday.
Because of the size of the storm, TS and Hurricane force winds will pummel a place along the path for 24-36 hours which can lead to a lot of destruction through 2-3 high tides cycles.
Not pretty. I double tied up Passage to my floating dock on Sunday. I only hope the ground tackle will hold up from late Saturday through Monday morning.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
Edited by - Voyager on 10/04/2016 13:51:01
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3992 Posts
Response Posted - 10/04/2016 :  12:49:50  Show Profile
Now shifted to the west Looks like the entire east coast is going to get strafed. Scramble mode?
Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


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TCurran
Admiral

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USA
588 Posts
Response Posted - 10/04/2016 :  15:50:32  Show Profile
Yup...I believed that it was heading away from us here on FL's Space Coast. Pulled the Watkins out for a "quick" bottom job. Well, multiple blisters (some rather large) killed any idea of a "quick" job. Pretty much worked non-stop the last two days just so I can out it back on a trailer and off of the jack stands (can secure it better on the trailer vice the jack stands). Hope to have it on the trailer and strip the canvas and sails tomorrow and get my hurricane/boating stove(s) and coffee pot. Stripped the sails off of the Capri and double tied the lines. Will check again in the morning, expecting high water with Matthew. Hope everyone stays safe and comes through with little or no damage. have everything i need at the house except beer...will fight the masses tomorrow for a couple of cases.
Tom Curran
1981 Capri 25 Hull #101 "Dirty Debbie"
1988 Watkins 30
PAFB, FL
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9013 Posts
Response Posted - 10/04/2016 :  21:03:12  Show Profile
Matt could arrive here Sunday. Sarge gets yanked Thursday. With the season within weeks of closing here, the risks of staying on the dock with Matt in the neighborhood have led to an early ending. Then I have to deal with some issues to protect my condo complex on the Mystic River estuary. (I'm the Big Kahuna.) I'm hoping my caution turns out to be "silly" like my lady says. (She says none of these storms end up coming here--that it's all hype by bored weather-people.)
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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dasreboot
Admiral

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803 Posts
Response Posted - 10/05/2016 :  03:46:01  Show Profile  Visit dasreboot's Homepage
you guys sure? noaa puts a 5% chance of tropical storm force winds in southern va by 2am monday. its just north of cuba today moving really slowly.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4 shtml/093327.shtml?tswind120#contents
Todd Lewis
Eowyn 87 TR/WK C25 #5656
ARWEN 84 TR/SK C25 #4031
www.mainsailsailingschool.com
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Notice: The advice given on this site is based upon individual or quoted experience, yours may differ.
The Officers, Staff and members of this site only provide information based upon the concept that anyone utilizing this information does so at their own risk and holds harmless all contributors to this site.